Coming in fresh off winning conference championships, 12 seed Oral Roberts, winners of the Summit League, match up against five seeded Duke, the ACC Champion. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with an Oral Roberts-Duke prediction and pick.
Oral Roberts enters the game after a 30-4 regular season, including a perfect conference record that was capped off with a Summit League Title. This is the Golden Eagles seventh NCAA tournament appearance, with the last one coming in 2021, and a sweet sixteen run. Duke was the four seed in the ACC tournament, with a 26-8 record, but made a run in the tournament led by first year head coach Jon Scheyer. While Oral Roberts is in their seventh tournament, Duke comes in boasting more title game appearances than that, with 11. This is a classic 5-12 matchup that is always looked at for upsets, and Oral Roberts is no stranger to doing that, upsetting the two seed Ohio State and seven seeded Florida in 2021. Still, Duke is young, talented, and is a historically great program, so can the Golden Eagles pull another March upset?
Here are the Oral Roberts-Dule March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Oral Roberts-Duke Odds
Oral Roberts: +6.5 (-110)
Duke: -6.5 (-110)
Over: 145.5 (-110)
Under: 145.5 (-110)
How To Watch Oral Roberts vs. Duke
TV: CBS
Stream: CBSSports.com, March Madness app, fuboTV
Time: 7:10 ET/ 4:10 PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Oral Roberts Could Cover The Spread
Oral Roberts comes into the match up with the 23rd rated adjusted efficiency offense according to KenPom. As a team, the Golden Eagles were third in points per game, at 84.2 points per outing. They also sat fifth in point differential per game, outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.1 points per game. To beat this squad, you have to be able to shut down beyond the arc, as they hit 10.8 three pointers per game, which was second in the nation, and boasted a top 50 three point shooting percentage.
This offense is led by Max Abmas, who averaged 22.2 points per game this season, while shooting 44.1% from the floor and 37.7% behind the arc. The senior guard from Rockwall, Texas, was 7th in the nation in points per game, and also not someone you wanted to send the the stripe, hitting 91.8% of his free throw attempts. Abmas is not just a scorer though, as he averaged 4.4 rebounds per game, good for fourth on the team.
Beyond the high volume shooting Abmas, the interior threat of Connor Vanover. The 7'3″ forward from Little Rock, Arkansas can dominate inside, but also pull the defense out, shooting 33.1% from three in his own right. He accounted for 7.2 rebounds per game, and fouling him was not the best strategy either, as he hit 81.2% this year from the charity stripe. This is an experienced crew that has offensive fire power.
Why Duke Could Cover The Spread
It may be hard to believe that the team that won the ACC Tournament sits as a five seed, but that is right where Duke finds themselves. Led on offense by the freshman Kyle Filipowski and junior Jeremy Roach, the Duke offense averages 71.8 points per game, while only giving up 63.8 points per game. Duke has a deep rotation, with nine players averaging more than 14 minutes per game on the season, and seven of them over the eighteen minute threshold.
Beyond being an offensive threat, Filipowski is a menace on D, with 1.2 steals per game, leading the team. He is also a monster on the boards, with an average of nine rebounds per game, which ties him for 38th in the nation. Duke averages 38.7 rebounds per game, which is 21st in the nation, and 12.1 on the offensive glass, good for 31st in the nation. Their overall rebound differential per game is +8, which ranks them fifth in the nation. Combining that with their positive turnover differential means teams have to play near flawless to come out on top when facing the Blue Devils.
Duke is balanced, and can control a game. In adjusted tempo according to KenPom they rank 288th. The Blue Devils decide the pace of play, and other teams just have to adjust.
Final Oral Roberts-Duke Prediction & Pick
Oral Roberts is one of the best in the nation at not allowing second chance points, but they are going to have to be near perfect to slow down Duke in this regard. They have more experience than this Duke squad, but size, and raw talent, Duke wins easily. In the games prior to the ACC title game, Duke has been scoring a fair amount, but they get to decide how the game is player. If they want to limit Abmas, they can slow it down. If they think they can outshoot him, they can speed it up. Oral Roberts has not seen themselves as the underdog many times this year, but in games that they are 6.5 point dogs or more, they are only 1-2. Duke is a more well rounded and talented team. If you are looking for the 5-12 upset, it may be wise to look elsewhere.
Final Oral Roberts-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke -6.5 (-110)
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