March Madness is not complete without some player prop bets. With sixteen teams still remaining, there are plenty of stars to watch. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with a special set of Sweet Sixteen prop bet predictions, odds, and picks.
While many of the leading scorers from the regular season are not present in this tournament, players are still available to make player prop bets on. Tyson Walker is coming off a 23-point outing, but can he repeat the performance? At UCLA Jaime Jaquez just put up 24, but now is facing Gonzaga. Markquis Nowell is hot right now, but will the Michigan State defense shut him down?
Beyond the player props, there are the other prop bets that can cash big. How many one-seeds make the final four? Does a game go to overtime?
Prop bets are abundant between the team plays and player points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, and parlays, there is plenty of money to be made through these plays.
Here are the latest March Madness prop bets, courtesy of BetOnline.
Prop: How many one-seeds make the Final Four?
Only two one-seeds remain in the NCAA tournament. First is Alabama. They play San Diego State and are obviously favored in the game. The Aztecs have faced a 12 and 13 seed so far, so this is a far different test. Alabama can stop Matt Bradley, and with that, have Brandon Miller lead them to a victory. That gives them the winner of Princeton-Creighton. If it is Princeton, you can ink in Alabama, but even if not, Alabama will roll the winner of that game and make the final four.
The other top seed is Houston, and while Miami and San Diego State are both five seeds, Miami is the slightly bigger test. Even more, the Elite Eight matchup is daunting. It is either against a Texas team that is top 25 per KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 50 on D, or a streaking Xavier that looks tough to beat. Regardless, Houston has a much harder road than Alabama.
Sweet Sixteen Prop Prediction: Alabama makes the final four, but Houston loses to Texas
Sweet Sixteen Prop Pick: 1 One seed makes the Final Four (-110)
Prop: Does a team score over 86.5 team points in the Sweet Sixteen?
Scoring 86.5 points in a game is a very high number. Actually, only Gonzaga averaged over that number in the regular season. They seem like the logical place to start when looking at this prop bet. Gonzaga is the number one rated team according to adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and the top-scoring team in the nation. They have yet to reach the 87-point marker this tournament. The Zags are facing a great UCLA defense, which has not given up 87 points all year.
Maybe Alabama or UCONN could be options. Arkansas is facing UCONN and is a top-flight defense. They have given up over 87 twice this year, but both times the other team hit over 50% of their three-point shots, which will not happen with UCONN. Alabama faces San Diego State, who is the 5th-ranked adjusted efficiency defense. They gave up 87 to Arizona, but that was early in the season.
In the tournament over 86.5 has been hit just four times. Once was a first-four game, twice were 16-1 matchups and the other was UCONN over Iona. None of these match-ups are that.
Sweet Sixteen Prop Prediction: No team scores over 86.5 in the Sweet Sixteen
Sweet Sixteen Prop Pick: All Teams Scoring Under 86.5 (-125)
Prop: Does a Sweet Sixteen game go to Overtime?
Last year, six tournament games went to overtime, but none in the Sweet Sixteen or after. In the year before that, there were also six games that went to overtime. In the 2019 tournament, it was five games that needed extra time. 2018 saw three games that needed overtime. The last time the tournament went this long without seeing an overtime game was in 2017. In that year, in the Sweet Sixteen, Wisconsin and Florida saw overtime. Overtime is not common, but it does happen. It happens again in these eight games.
Sweet Sixteen Prop Prediction: There is an overtime game on Friday
Sweet Sixteen Prop Pick: Yes- a Sweet Sixteen game goes to Overtime (+170)
Prop: Player Points
Beyond the team props, you can also play player props. The first to look at is Markquis Nowell. Nowell is Kansas State's leading assist man but has been scoring so far in the NCAA tournament. His two games have seen him put up 27 points against Kentucky and 17 against Montana State. Prior to that, he put up 25 in a game against West Virginia on March 3rd. He averages 17.1 points, and while Michigan State will slow down the transition, he had become a primary man on this team.
Sweet Sixteen Prop Prediction: Nowell scores 18 points
Sweet Sixteen Prop Pick: Markquis Nowell Over 16.5 Points (-120)
If plus odds is what you seek, look no further than Amari Bailey. Bailey scores 10.9 points per game, which is fourth on UCLA this year. Third leading scorer Jaylen Clark has not played since his leg injury, and Gonzaga will focus on Jaime Jaquez Jr., and playing him to hit the over is not a bad option. With any defense focusing on one player, it is not the safest of plays though. UCLAs is going to need to score here, but that should come from Campbell and Jaquez, if not closer to the rim. Bailey’s hot streak will come to an end here.
Sweet Sixteen Prop Prediction: Bailey scores 11 points
Sweet Sixteen Prop Pick: Amari Bailey Under 14.5 Points (+100)
UCONN is one of the best teams in the nation at moving the ball around. They thrive on ball movement, and quick ball movement is going to be key against a good Arkansas defense. In seven of the last eight games, Tristen Newton has been a key to the ball movement. In that time frame, he has hit over 3 assists in all of them. If UCONN wants to score, Newton will need to set up guys. On the season, Newton is over 3.5 assists 60% of the time.
Sweet Sixteen Prop Prediction: Newton five assists
Sweet Sixteen Prop Pick: Tristen Newton over 3.5 assists (-130)
Finally, a good two days are not complete without a parlay. The Sweet Sixteen features some elite scorers. This play is in the UCONN/Michigan State game. This takes one of the previous plays, with two guys who have been performing big-time in the tournament. Big players make big plays in big games, so here is a final play for that:
Sweet Sixteen Prop Pick Parlay: Tyson Walker Over 15.5 Points, Markquis Nowell Over 16.5 Points, AJ Hoggard over 5.5 Assists (+525)
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