The Miami Dolphins escaped Week 1 with a tight victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Credit to the Dolphins for securing the win on a crazy NFL Sunday that included Tyreek Hill's scary encounter with Miami-Dade police. Tyreek Hill showed up in a big moment for the Dolphins and Miami did just enough to win the game.
However I can't help imagining all of the ways that the game could have slipped away from the Dolphins.
The obvious play to highlight is Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr.'s fumble near the goal line towards the end of the third quarter. The Jaguars were up 17-7 with just over two minutes left in the quarter. Etienne Jr. is barreling towards the end zone when he fumbled the ball and Dolphins CB Kader Kohou recovered in the end zone for a touchback. If Etienne Jr. does not fumble, the Jaguars are up 24-7 going into the fourth quarter, which would have dramatically changed this game.
The Jaguars also botched a fourth-and-one on their own 32 yard line on the first play of the fourth quarter. This was a poor play call by the Jaguars, and a gutsy decision to boot. Big credit to Miami's defense for stopping the Jaguars here as this was another huge high-leverage moment in the game.
Why are we spending some much time talking about Week 1? Unfortunately, it is all we have to go on when predicting this early-season Week 2 matchup.
I think it is important to look back at this game and recognize that the Dolphins did not have a dominating offense like most NFL fans suspected. It is also important to point out that the Dolphins are playing on a short week that has been filled with distraction related to Hill's interaction with Miami-Dade police on Sunday.
Those two factors taken together make the Dolphins an unknown quantity on Thursday Night Football against the Bills.
Below we will discuss four bold Dolphins predictions ahead of their divisional showdown on Thursday Night Football.
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Tua Tagovailoa exceeds Josh Allen in passing yards, touchdowns
Dolphins fans should view this bold predictions as both a compliment to Tua and a realistic assessment of Buffalo's new-look offense in 2024.
The Bills are no longer asking Josh Allen to do it all with his arm. In Week 1, Allen threw for only 232 passing yards. It is easy to go on autopilot and see those numbers and assume “Josh Allen is a running QB, he made up for a lack of passing yards with rushing production.” If that's your line of thought, you're kind of right. Allen did add nine carries for 39 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1.
But let's look at this another way — Allen only had 271 all-purpose yards against a woeful Cardinals defense.
This does not mean that Allen is washed or that the Bills had a bad game, far from it. The Bills dominated in a 34-28 victory, they just didn't do that the way we're used to seeing it.
James Cook commanded 19 carries and Allen spread the ball around, targeting 10 different receivers and connecting with nine of them. Allen of course called his own numbers a handful of times, which resulted in two touchdowns.
It is hard to fully understand what this means for the Bills in the long term. Does a more diversified offense mean they're tougher to defend? Will the gameplan vary wildly week to week? We'll simply have to wait and see. It does mean that we shouldn't expect 350+ passing yards from Allen on Thursday Night Football.
Back to Tua and the Dolphins. They had a sluggish performance in Week 1, but Tagovailoa still threw for 338 yards and a touchdown.
My prediction: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has more passing yards and passing touchdowns than Bills QB Josh Allen on Thursday Night Football.
Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright is active, gets his first NFL touches
Miami's running back room is not looking good going into Week 2.
The Dolphins have already confirmed that Raheem Mostert will not play on Thursday and De'Von Achane appears to be a game-time decision.
This does not bode well for a Dolphins running game that struggled to get off to a good start in Week 1. If Achane is not able to play, much of the workload will fall on Jeff Wilson Jr. and rookie Jaylen Wright.
Wilson Jr. will of course be the priority as he is a veteran running back, but Wright could definitely mix into the rotation if needed.
My bold prediction: Jaylen Wright is active for Thursday Night Football and gets his first NFL touches of his career. He will not start, but will play a rotational role with Jeff Wilson Jr. and possibly De'Von Achane.
Tyreek Hill dominates Buffalo's secondary on multiple big plays
Tyreek Hill can torch any NFL defense, even on an incredibly weird day.
Hill was no doubt distracted by Sunday's incident with Miami-Dade police. However, it didn't stop him from dominating on the field.
Hill put up seven receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. This type of production is expected from Tyreek Hill, and could even be considered a down game. He is truly a special wide receiver and Miami has built a unique offense that deploys him well.
There is no reason to assume that Tyreek's dominance will end anytime soon. This is especially true against the Bills.
Buffalo will be without cornerback Taron Johnson on Thursday. This leaves the Bills with Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford as their starting cornerbacks. That is certainly not enough to scare Hill and the Dolphins, especially with their uniquely-potent offensive scheme.
My prediction: Tyreek Hill goes off for another big day against the Bills. Specifically, Hill will score multiple 50+ yards touchdowns on Thursday Night Football against Buffalo. Take note, fantasy football managers.
Bills pummel the Dolphins on the ground, control time of possession in a close win against the Dolphins
I am worried about Miami's run defense, and Dolphins fans should be too.
The Dolphins gave up 128 rushing yards in Week 1. That does not sound bad by itself, but the problem is who they gave those yards up to.
Tank Bigsby was Jacksonville's leading rusher with 12 carries for 73 yards, good for 6.1 yards per carry. Bigsby has struggled mightily in his short NFL career, so giving up such a good game to him is concerning.
This is an even bigger concern for Thursday Night Football against James Cook and Josh Allen. The Dolphins could get pummeled by the Bills on the ground, which could make thsi game all the more difficult.
If the Bills are able to control time of possession and regularly sustain drives, the Dolphins could be in for a long day.
My prediction: the Bills commit to running the ball against the Dolphins, both on designed run plays and scrambles from Josh Allen. Buffalo gains at least 75 more rushing yards than Miami as a team. As a result, the Bills win this game with a suffocating final drive that eats up the remaining clock.
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