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It was hard to tell if the Toronto Blue Jays' 2024 season was a fluke or the beginning of a gloomy stretch of baseball in The 6. A myriad of concerns suggested that the latter was more likely. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was seemingly prepared to enter free agency, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman were both racking up considerable mileage on their respective right arms, the lineup looked too star-dependent and the bullpen was a mess. Many fans were bracing themselves for an official collapse.
But that's why you play the games. Toronto has been one of MLB's best teams since late May and currently holds a four-and-a-half-game lead in the American League East. The Blue Jays (61-42) have not just avoided a grisly fate. Against all odds, they are looking like a model organization in the year 2025. The best way to define this mysterious club is to borrow an annoyingly overused yet certainly appropriate phrase: the vibes are good.
And that is saying something, because they have sure been tested. Guerrero, who initially set a contract extension deadline for Feb. 18, began the season without a deal. He put pen to paper in April, committing to the franchise for another 14 years. Notable free agency acquisitions Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman have been flops, whether it be because of performance, health or both. Toronto is excelling nevertheless.
The Jays were below .500 after 52 games, and John Schneider was in a vulnerable spot. Some even predicted a potential midseason firing. Now, they own the best record in the AL, and Schneider is a sleeper for Manager of the Year honors. With a top-five payroll and ample talent, this is by no means a rag-tag bunch. However, this organization was drowning in bad optics, perceived as a desperate underachiever that could not secure any of its top free-agent choices.
Toronto has plowed through the persistent criticism, an always taxing division and a slew of ongoing injury problems. I will say about the Blue Jays what Lou Grant told Mary Richards roughly 55 years ago. This ballclub has spunk. But it could still use some more pitching.
Despite the brilliant job this group has done overcoming frequent setbacks, one does not often survive a lack of depth in the starting rotation during the month of October.
Kevin Gausman has a 4.00-plus ERA, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt have both been streaky this year and Max Scherzer is almost 41 years old. Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller comes with his own questions, but what he can potentially offer is additional insurance. ESPN's Jeff Passan lists the 2023 All-Star as a player Toronto should target ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
Is this a good match for Blue Jays?
Identifying and procuring viable starting pitchers on the trade market is becoming more burdensome by the year. Front offices must decide if it is worth it to pay a premium for promising hurlers who are under contract or go for a more affordable arm that brings considerably less upside. Merely making moves is not enough. Fans will see through any superficial gesture that is designed to appease them rather than genuinely enhance their team's title chances.
Keller is somewhat of a mixed bag, a trade deadline candidate who lacks the sizzle factor but could occupy a solid place in the rotation for multiple years. His salary, which is $15.4 million in 2025, will soar to $16.9 million next year, $18.4 million in 2027 and then wrap up at $20.4 million in 2028. With 151 career starts already under his belt, the 29-year-old is unlikely to obtain ace status. Any prospective suitors have to temper expectations when it comes to his ceiling.
Nevertheless, former All-Stars who are presently enjoying a career-best campaign definitely deserve strong consideration when their name surfaces in the rumor mill. Keller can help the Blue Jays now and down the line. Absorbing a rising contract that could become less appealing as time wears on is the cost of doing business in today's age. When reaching a World Series becomes a conceivable goal, one should not allow future encumbrances to get in the way.
Executing calculated risks is how contenders gain separation in the final stretch. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins must keep this in mind as he considers all accessible routes during the remainder of July. Passan is confident that Pittsburgh contains the road most worth taking.
“Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once,” the MLB insider writes. “The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.”
Mitch Keller is in the midst of an impressive stretch
The Detroit Tigers remain MLB's feel-good story dating back to last summer, the Houston Astros continue to stay in the title hunt despite losing one star player after another, the New York York Yankees are the defending American League pennant winners and the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox are both dangerous in their own ways. Throw in the Blue Jays and you have the ballclubs currently slotted in the playoffs.
It is not an easy path to cross, but there is also no clear frontrunner at the moment. Atkins must do his best to ensure that Toronto assumes that role going into the postseason, properly positioning the team for its first World Series appearance since 1993. This felt too unrealistic to even label as a fantasy earlier in the year, but now, John Schneider's crew looks ready to roll.
The best way for a franchise to gain an edge in October is by lengthening its pitching staff. Mitch Keller can stretch out the rotation, thereby keeping a banged-up bullpen as fresh as possible during the playoffs. The 2014 second-round draft pick has a 3.53 ERA with 97 strikeouts and 30 walks through 125 innings pitched this season. He makes up for his 18.7 strikeout rate by inducing ground balls 44.8 percent of the time.
Most importantly, Keller is in rhythm. He has allowed just six earned runs in 25 2/3 innings of work in July, doing the Pirates the courtesy of raising his trade value at the perfect time. No matter how the Cedar Rapids, Iowa native fares against the San Francisco Giants in his next scheduled start, his price tag is bound to be expensive.
Toronto may have to pay a pretty penny
The offensively-needy Pirates should push hard for one of the top bats in the Blue Jays' system. Although he is struggling in Triple-A Buffalo, infielder Orelvis Martinez stands out as a possible option if Pittsburgh and Toronto complete a deal for Keller. He is the organization's third-ranked prospect and could become an important component of the Buccos' seemingly never-ending rebuilding project.
Assembling a trade package that starts with Martinez is definitely costly, especially for someone who would likely reside in the middle portion of the Blue Jays' rotation, but that is what it takes to fortify a staff for a deep October run. These gambles frequently misfire and could even inflict long-term damage on a club. Toronto's circumstances are incredibly unique, however.
This team and fan base has not experienced a postseason series victory in nine years. The Jays are in first place with an AL-best 37-17 record at home. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and X-factor Addison Barger are all making a strong impact in the lineup, and the starting rotation is loaded with experience. Everything might be coming together in Toronto, as a once murky campaign turns stunningly bright.
The forecast can obviously change again before the regular season concludes, but the Blue Jays may not want to wait and see what the baseball gods have in store for them. They can try to grab hold of their fate at the July 31 MLB trade deadline.
