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The Memphis Grizzlies (9-5) face the New Orleans Pelicans (7-6) in a Southwest Division matchup. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Grizzlies-Pelicans prediction and pick.
Memphis is in fifth place in the Western Conference despite most recently losing to Washington. The Grizzlies have struggled against the spread this season, covering just 39% of their games. Memphis has been privy to low-scoring affairs, with 54% of their games going under. New Orleans, on the other hand, sits in seventh in the West following a victory over Houston last weekend. The Pelicans have covered 46% of their games with 62% of those going over.
The Grizzlies took three of four meetings against the Pelicans last season by 12, 21, and 27-point margins, respectively. The Pelicans took their lone victory by 11. Three of the four matchups went over Tuesday's's 228.5-point total.
Here are the Grizzlies-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Pelicans Odds
Memphis Grizzlies: +3.5 (-112)
New Orleans Pelicans: -3.5 (-108)
Over: 228.5 (-110)
Under: 228.5 (-110)
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis has been solid to begin the season but is still looking to recapture the same magic from last year's regular-season juggernaut. The Grizzlies feature an above-average offense that ranks 11th in points per game and efficiency. They are especially potent from beyond the arc (37.1% from 3-point range, tied for seventh in the league). Memphis excels on the glass, pulling down the second-most rebounds per game to go along with the league's fifth-highest rebounding rate. However, they have struggled somewhat on the defensive end of the floor, where they are 17th in points allowed and 18th in defensive efficiency.
Despite their poor form defensively thus far, Memphis should get a boost in that department Tuesday as forward Jaren Jackson Jr. is expected to make his season debut. Jackson has yet to play this season after recovering from offseason surgery. He was stellar last season, averaging 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. The Grizzlies have surely missed him. The team won 68% of their games with Jackson in the lineup last season. He performed well in four games against the Pelicans last year, averaging 2.5 blocks per game and scoring over 20 points twice.
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Memphis will get another boost in addition to Jackson with Ja Morant expected to return from a one-game absence. Morant has been the catalyst of this Grizzlies team, pacing the squad in both points (28.8) and assists (7.0). Ja is shooting a career-high 41% from 3-point range but is simultaneously getting to the free throw line more than ever (8.3 FTA per game). He's a nightmare for opposing defenses, however, the Pelicans did hold him to just 22.3 points per game last season.
While the Pelicans did their best to keep Morant in line last year, they could do little to stop Memphis' talented wings. Desmond Bane (24.7 PPG) and Dillion Brooks (15.5 PPG) are the team's second- and third-leading scorers this season. They terrorized New Orleans last season, too, as Brooks averaged 23 PPG and Bane averaged 16 PPG. Unfortunately, Bane is set to miss several weeks with an injury, so he will not play in this one.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
The Pelicans' profile is similar to their opponent. New Orleans is excellent on offense (seventh in points per game) but is mediocre defensively (15th in points allowed). They make up for their average defense with strong rebounding numbers (third in rebound rate) and do a great job taking care of the ball (ninth-fewest turnovers per game).
New Orleans is led by their “Big Three” of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum. Although Zion is questionable for the game, Ingram and McCollum are fully capable of carrying the load. Ingram averages 21.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists while contributing nearly a steal and a block a night. Ingram is shooting a career-best 47% from 3-point range.
The X-factor for New Orleans, though, is guard CJ McCollum. CJ is third on the team in scoring (17.8 PPG) and paces the Pelicans in assists (6.3). He often defers to his young forwards but has the ability to turn it on himself when needed. He has struggled of late (averaging only 9.5 points on 27% shooting over his last four games) but has a strong track record against the Grizzlies. In four appearances last season, McCollum averaged 25.8 points and 6.0 assists on 46% shooting against Memphis. His strong history against the Grizzlies is certainly something worth keeping in mind when making a Grizzlies-Pelicans prediction.
Final Grizzlies-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
Memphis had New Orleans' number last year and with the return of Jaren Jackson Jr., I expect them to come out firing on all cylinders Tuesday, even without Desmond Bane. Especially considering the Pelicans' inconsistency this year, play the Grizzlies with confidence.
Final Grizzlies-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 (-112)
