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As the Miami Heat playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers starts with Game 1 on Sunday night, it will no doubt be a tough matchup, looking at the pathway the team took through the play-in tournament. With the Heat beating the Atlanta Hawks, they are the first tenth seed to make it through the tourney and make the playoffs, but the Cavaliers now await them, as we'll be making our Heat playoffs predictions.
Miami will come into the series as massive underdogs as while Cleveland will be well-rested, the now-eighth seed does come in with immense momentum. While the Cavs are a different animal, there is no denying the Heat's resilience, with the team making the playoffs after going through the Jimmy Butler drama and the 10-game losing streak.
“We have an incredible appreciation, and I’m so grateful that we’re in the playoffs,” Spoelstra said via the team. “We’re the first team to do it, why not, to take down two road games to be able to get an invitation into this tournament.”
“We’ve been through a lot, we’ve been through a lot this year, and our guys wanted this,” Spoelstra continued. “Then I want them to take a moment and reflect on how far we’ve come in the last three months. We’ll get to Cleveland. I think it’s better that we just get on and play on Sunday instead of having more time to overanalyze and overdo things as we tend to do.”
Looking at the No. 8 seed's chances to upset the No. 1, there have been only six other times when that's happened. However, the last time it happened was in 2023, when the Heat had their miraculous run to the NBA Finals. Here's our Heat Playoffs predictions:
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Heat will steal a game on the road
For the Heat to contend against the Cavaliers, the team has to use its aforementioned momentum and steal a game on their home floor. With that being said, that will exactly be the first bold prediction, which is Miami winning either Game 1 or Game 2 in Cleveland as they'll come back home with the series tied at one win apiece.
“Cleveland has been No. 1 in the East all year,” Adebayo said via The Miami Herald. “They’ve been having a historical season. So for us, it’s understanding what’s at stake for them. For us, it’s figure out how to get one in Cleveland and worry about everything else later.”
“Everybody knows when you get to this point, anything can happen,” Adebayo continued. “We can just start shooting the ball great, and obviously we’ve done it before.”
Looking at the three-game series between the two teams, the Heat won the first with Butler while the other two were losses. However, the final contest was a close one from beginning to the end in Clevleland where Miami was without Butler by this point with the trade with even Herro missing that game with an injury, ending in a five-point loss.
The Cavaliers are a fierce team for a reason, but Miami can match that intensity as early as Game 1 and set the tone for the series.
Heat playing the “hard way” will test the Cavs
Piggybacking off the last point, the Heat will look to bring the defensive intensity right from the get-go go with one big prediction being in one of the first two games, Cleveland will be kept to under 100 points. That's probably as bold as a prediction will get in regards to the No. 1 seed, since they have done that once this season with their lowest being 93 points against the Indiana Pacers on Jan. 12.
While it will be important in trying to match up with the Cavs offensively, Miami's identiy is run through their defense which will for sure be on display in either Game 1 or Game 2. If there is one aspectr that fans and the basketball world know about the Heat, they like to do things the “hard way” as said by Haywood Highsmith.
“We did it the hard way,” Highsmith said Friday. “We fought through a lot of things this season. It’s prepared us for these types of moments. We’re the first 10th seed to make the playoffs with two road victories. So we’re battle-tested. We can go anywhere and beat anybody.”
With the anchor being Adebayo, expect others such as Highsmith and standout Davion Mitchell to bring it to Cleveland's key players from the get-go.
Tyler Herro with more standout performances for the Heat this series
While players like Adebayo, newcomer Andrew Wiggins, among others, will be vital, the Heat's first-time All-Star in Tyler Herro, is the leading driver for the offense. This has been on display in the last two play-in tournament games, where Herro has scored 38 and 30, but now faces a Cleveland team that is top ten in defensive rating.
Still, it has been a battle for Herro in adapting to how defense is being played against him which he's starting to get around like changing his shot chart. Despite the challenge, Herro is now back to showing why he's in the midst of his best season yet in his career.
“Obviously, the way guys are guarding me now, I’m not getting the same catch-and-shoot threes I was getting at the beginning of the year,” Herro said via The Miami Herald.
“Even my pull-up threes off the bounce aren’t the same I was getting early on,” Herro continued. “A lot of guys are blitzing me or switching or being up on the pick-and-roll. So, just finding different ways to be aggressive. I’m not going to get the same shots every game with just the way guys are guarding me. But I got to find different ways to be efficient. Also, context of games, knowing when to shoot the pull-up two, which I think I’m doing pretty well.”
Whether Miami wins the series or not, expect Herro to average 25 points per game, where the Cavs will up the pressure on the 25-year-old.
Andrew Wiggins will frustrate the Cavs
Besides Herro and Adebayo as mentioned before, the one player who will be crucal for the Heat's success is Wiggins who serves as the third option on the team. While it's tough for any player to fill in the void left by Butler, Wiggins has been productive in his time with Miami, though his availability has been limited.
Can't stress enough how much the team needs Wiggins in this series as when Cleveland will key in on Herro to stop him on offense, Wiggins will get a bevy of opportuniuties to capitalize. Spoelstra has said time and time again how “different” Wiggins makes the team which will show true in the playoff series.
“Yeah, we feel really good about where our game is when he’s available,” Spoelstra said about Wiggins earlier. “We have all seen it, and that’s enough, we have the continuity, enough of it, because he’s a plug-and-fit-in guy. He just makes us different.”
At the end of the day, one has to be realistic about the team's chances to beat the Cavs in a seven-game series, the team is still one that deserved to be the No. 1 seed.
Even with all that being said, don't be surprised if the Heat take two games in the series, as they've played the Cavs hard this season. Miami will win one on the road and at home to catch them off guard, but then Cleveland will take back control in Games 5 and 6.
