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As the college football season enters its final stretch, the Big 12 Championship race is heating up, and BYU sits at the center of the action. Tied with Colorado atop the standings at 6-1 in conference play, the Cougars control their destiny, but they need to navigate a challenging path to solidify their spot in the title game. With just two regular-season games remaining, BYU’s margin for error is razor-thin.
BYU can clinch a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game as early as this weekend. According to the Big 12, the Cougars will secure their spot with a win over Arizona State coupled with a Utah victory over Iowa State. That scenario would eliminate key competitors and set up a winner-take-all showdown between BYU and Colorado, provided the Buffaloes also win this weekend.
Despite the seemingly straightforward scenario, the Cougars face a tough task against an 8-2 Arizona State team riding high after upsetting Kansas State last week. “It’s about taking it one game at a time,” said BYU head coach Kalani Sitake. “We can’t afford to look past Arizona State. They’re playing great football right now.”
If BYU wins out—defeating Arizona State and Houston—they will guarantee themselves a spot in the Big 12 title game. At 8-1 in conference play, no team could overtake them in the standings. This path leaves no room for ambiguity or reliance on external results, making it the most straightforward route for BYU to secure its first Big 12 Championship appearance.
BYU must win out to guarantee a spot in the Big-12 title game
However, losing either of the remaining games could complicate matters significantly. Falling to Arizona State this weekend would not eliminate BYU but would cede control of their destiny. In that case, the Cougars would need to beat Houston and hope for losses by Arizona State, Iowa State, or Colorado to regain a path to the title game.
If BYU stumbles, chaos looms. A loss to Arizona State or Houston could open the door for a tangled web of tiebreakers involving up to nine Big 12 teams, including Iowa State, Kansas State, and Baylor. These scenarios would leave BYU at the mercy of other teams’ results and the conference’s complex tiebreaker rules.
For BYU, the stakes extend beyond the Big 12 title game. A conference championship could catapult them into the College Football Playoff. However, their CFP hopes took a hit after dropping from No. 6 to No. 14 in the latest rankings. Winning out would keep them in contention for a top-four seed, while a loss could relegate them to an at-large berth or worse.
BYU’s matchup with Arizona State carries immense implications not only for the Cougars but for the entire Big 12. With so much at stake, Sitake and his team must execute at a high level to stay in the championship race. “It’s all in front of us,” Sitake said. “Now it’s about finishing strong and proving we belong.”
