The Buffalo Bills will head to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots in a Thursday night showdown. It's time to continue our NFL odds series with a Bills-Patriots prediction and pick.
The Bills edged the Detroit Lions 28-25 in a Thanksgiving thriller where Josh Allen drove Buffalo down the field to set up the game-winning field goal. Allen completed 24 of 42 passes for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception while rushing 10 times for 78 yards and a score. Additionally, Devin Singletary rushed 14 times for 72 yards. Isaiah Mckenzie caught six passes for 96 yards and a touchdown, while Stefon Diggs had eight catches for 77 yards and a score. Also, Gabe Davis added four catches for 38 yards. The Bills had a sack each from Daquan Jones and Ed Oliver but lost Von Miller to a potentially season-ending injury,
The Patriots fell 33-26 to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving night. Mac Jones completed 28 of 39 passes for 382 yards and two touchdowns. Also, Rhamondre Stevenson rushed seven times for 36 yards and caught nine passes for 76 yards. Devante Parker caught four passes for 80 yards, and Nelson Agholor had six catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. Likewise, tight end Hunter Henry snagged three passes for 63 yards and a touchdown.
The Patriots lead the all-time series 76-41-1. Additionally, they are 6-4 over the last 10 against the Bills and 6-4 in the previous 10 at Gillette. Allen is 3-4 against the Patriots with an 82.7 quarterback rating. Moreover, he has thrown for 1511 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions over seven career games against New England. Allen has gone over 300 yards twice. Meanwhile, Jones is 1-1 in his two appearances against the Bills. He has a 35.9 quarterback rating with 164 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Here are the Bills-Patriots NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Bills-Patriots Odds
Buffalo Bills: -4 (-110)
New England Patriots: +4 (-110)
Over: 43.5 (-110)
Under: 43.5 (-110)
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread
The Bills are one of the best teams in the league. However, they have dropped three games this season, including two road games against divisional rivals. It is their first meeting of the year against the Patriots, and they look to secure a second road win in a row.
Allen has a 63.9 percent completion rate, a 95.2 quarterback rating, and 3183 passing yards for 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Additionally, he has rushed 81 times for 561 yards and five touchdowns. Singletary has 124 rushes for 552 yards, five touchdowns, 31 receptions for 226 yards, and a score. Likewise, Diggs has 84 catches for 1110 yards and nine touchdowns. Davis has 33 catches for 650 yards and five scores. Meanwhile, tight end Dawson Knox has 33 receptions for 327 yards and two touchdowns. Mckenzie has 30 catches for 315 yards and four scores.
The defense took a significant hit with Miller's injury, as he had registered eight sacks on the year. Ultimately, they were already without Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who may return this week. The Bills will need them on the pass rush that has suffered too many injuries. Conversely, the middle has remained steady. Matt Milano has 46 solo tackles and two interceptions, while Taron Johnson has 44 solo tackles. Additionally, Tremaine Edmunds has 40 solo tackles.
The Bills will cover the spread if Allen can move the ball efficiently, regardless of what Bill Belichick throws at him defensively. Likewise, the defense must stop the run and force the Patriots to become one-dimensional.
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread
The Patriots have the talent to make the ball move. However, they thrive off the running game and will need their quarterback to take care of the ball. Jones has a 69.2 percent completion rate with an 87.3 quarterback rating with 1768 yards, six touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Moreover, Stevenson has rushed 151 times for 680 yards on a 4.5 yards-per-rush rate with four touchdowns while also catching 50 passes for 359 yards and a score. Jacobi Meyers has 47 catches for 571 yards and three touchdowns this year, while Parker has 21 receptions for 4210 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Henry now has 23 receptions for 323 yards and two scores. Agholor has added 23 receptions for 310 yards and two touchdowns.
The defense has remained excellent. Ultimately, Devin McCourty has been a gem with 41 solo tackles and two interceptions. Matthew Judon leads the team with 13 sacks. Likewise, Deatrich Wise Jr. has added 6.5 sacks to the tally.
The Patriots will cover the spread if they can run the ball successfully. Moreover, their defense must make Allen uncomfortable and not give him any time to throw.
Final Bills-Patriots Prediction & Pick
The Bills are not blowing anyone away recently. Thus, it isn't easy to take them even to cover four points. Remember, Buffalo has lost to two divisional rivals and struggles with the Patriots. Expect this game to be a nail-biter, with a winner not emerging until the very end.
Final Bills-Patriots Prediction & Pick: New England Patriots: +4 (-110)
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