The Denver Broncos (3-8) visit the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Broncos-Ravens prediction and pick.
Denver finds themselves losers of three consecutive games, therefore eliminating themselves from playoff contention. The Broncos are 3-8 against the spread while 91% of their games have gone under. Baltimore, meanwhile, leads the AFC North despite losing to Jacksonville last week. The Ravens are 4-6-1 against the spread while 64% of their games have gone under. The teams most recently faced off last season when Baltimore took a 23-7 victory.
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Here are the Broncos-Ravens NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Broncos-Ravens Odds
Denver Broncos: +9.5 (-114)
Baltimore Ravens: -9.5 (-106)
Over: 39.5 (-110)
Under: 39.5 (-110)
Why The Broncos Could Cover The Spread
Denver's offseason trade for Russell Wilson continues to be one of the worst trades in recent memory. Not only are the Broncos now eliminated from playoff contention, but the Seahawks look the part of a playoff team. It would be one thing if Wilson was being held back by his supporting cast but the opposite has been true. Wilson and the Denver offense have been arguably the most detrimental unit in the league.
Two things need to happen if the Broncos want to cover this week. First, the defense has to continue to be elite. Lost in Denver's disappointing record has been one of the best units in the NFL. The Broncos rank eighth in defensive DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest points per game. While they are solid against the run, Denver has been downright mean against the pass. Pat Surtain II leads arguably the best secondary in the NFL. The unit has propelled Denver to the fourth-best DVOA in the league. The Broncos have just been incredible on defense. They have been so good, in fact, that the team would be 9-2 if their offense scored just 18 points in regulation of each game. Baltimore's offense isn't lethal by any means but with Lamar Jackson, at the helm, they'll need to continue their strong play.
That brings us to the second thing that needs to happen if the Broncos want to cover. Russell Wilson and company have to score. They've gone three games without eclipsing 20 points and they'll need to do at least that if they want to cover, let alone win. Baltimore's defense ranks in the top ten against both the pass and rush, so Denver has its work cut out for them. That being said, Jacksonville torched Baltimore's secondary last week. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton has been one of the few bright spots on the Broncos' offense. He's amassed at least five catches and 65 yards in three straight games. Sutton hasn't scored since week four, however – something to keep in mind when making a Broncos-Ravens prediction.
Why The Ravens Could Cover The Spread
It hasn't always been pretty, but Baltimore has withstood a number of injuries and last-minute losses to lead the AFC North. They have plenty of motivation to continue their strong play with the red-hot Bengals right on their tail. Despite having four losses, Baltimore holds the seventh-best point differential in the league. Their four losses occurred by a combined 12 points. There is a reason Baltimore is an eight-point favorite: they're a rock-solid football team.
Offensively, the Ravens have persevered through numerous injuries to skill-position players to hold the fifth-best DVOA. They're particularly lethal on the ground where they average the second-most rushing yards per game. The rushing attack starts with quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson ranks second among quarterbacks and 12th overall in rushing yards with 755. Outside of Jackson, Baltimore has a plethora of capable backs with impressive numbers. Kenyan Drake (392 yards), Justice Hill (223 yards), and Gus Edwards (183 yards) have all produced in the wake of starter JK Dobbins' injury (123 yards).
Against a defense as talented as Denver's, you need to be able to work the ball through the air when needed. Baltimore is thin at wide receiver but has one of the premier tight ends in the league in Mark Andrews. Despite missing a portion of the season, Andrews ranks second among tight ends in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Denver has yet to allow more than 55 yards to a tight end this week but if Andrews can get loose Baltimore could run away with this one.
Final Broncos-Ravens Prediction & Pick
Denver has been an under machine and despite Baltimore's high-scoring affair last week, I don't see a lot of points being scored here. Bet the under and keep this game off your TV on Sunday.
Final Broncos-Ravens Prediction & Pick: Under 39.5 (-110)
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