The Cleveland Browns (4-7) visit the Houston Texans (1-9-1) on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Browns-Texans prediction and pick.
Cleveland most recently defeated Tampa Bay last week and sits three games behind in the AFC Wild Card race. The Browns are 5-6 against the spread while 70% of their games have gone over. Houston has lost six consecutive games and is eliminated from playoff contention. The Texans are 4-6-1 against the spread while 64% of their games have gone under. The teams most recently faced off last season when Cleveland took a 31-21 victory.
Here are the Browns-Texans NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Browns-Texans Odds
Cleveland Browns: -7.5 (-114)
Houston Texans: +7.5 (-106)
Over: 46.5 (-115)
Under: 46.5 (-105)
Why The Browns Could Cover The Spread
After 700 days Deshaun Watson will make his return to football against his former team. Although Watson's suspension just ended, he worked out with the team for nearly two months and practiced fully since November 14th. Watson immediately vaults Cleveland's offense into elite territory. In Watson's last full season, he threw for 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns. The three-time Pro Bowler will assuredly have some rust to shake off but shouldn't be asked to do too much against his former team. Houston's defense ranks 24th in pass DVOA but has allowed just ten passing touchdowns this season. Expect the Browns to ease Watson in slowly facing a surprisingly competent Houston secondary.
While Watson dominates the media buzz around the game, the Browns will likely rely on Nick Chubb and the rushing attack to dominate the game itself. Houston is one of the worst rushing defenses in the league which bodes well for Cleveland's top-five ground game. The Texans' defense is 30th in rush DVOA and allows the second-most rushing yards in the league. The Browns average 154 rushing yards per game. Houston is 0-5-1 when allowing over 150 yards rushing this season with four of those losses coming by seven or more points. All eyes will be on Watson's return, but the story of this game revolves first and foremost around Cleveland's stellar run game.
Although the Browns' offense projects to have its way with a porous Houston defense, their defense remains a major question mark. Cleveland ranks 29th in defensive DVOA but is particularly susceptible to opposing running backs. The Browns allow the tenth-most rushing yards per game and just gave up 4.8 yards per carry to Tampa Bay's 32nd-ranked rushing attack. Cleveland can mitigate this if they're able to get an early lead and force Houston into obvious passing situations. If that happens, the Browns should have plenty of success getting to the quarterback. Defensive end Myles Garrett ranks fifth with 10.0 sacks this season and now matches up with an inexperienced Houston line. The Texans allowed the sixth most sacks in the league this season and were taken down five times last week – something to keep in mind when making a Browns-Texans prediction.
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread
Houston's defense does not have much hope of containing Cleveland's potent offense, so they'll look for their offense to shoulder the load. With one of the highest totals of the week, there is certainly hope for a shootout. The Browns' defense struggles both through the air and on the ground. However, Houston's poor offensive line play of late and shaky quarterback situation means they'll need Dameon Pierce to have a bounce-back performance if they have any hope of covering.
Pierce has been a great story this season. The fourth-round pick out of Florida took the starting job and ran with it after a strong preseason. He's been a workhorse for Houston this season – ranking fifth in rush attempts and ninth in rushing yards. Things haven't been easy over the last two weeks, however, as Pierce accumulated just 16 rushing yards in their last two games. That being said, he finds himself in a great spot to bounce back against a brutal Cleveland run defense. The Browns rank 31st in rush DVOA and are bottom-ten in both yards per carry and total yards. Houston has shown the ability to hang around games and that usually correlates with a big game from Pierce. His two strongest games of the season came against the Chargers and Eagles – both solid teams with suspect run defenses.
Final Browns-Texans Prediction & Pick
Cleveland's run game should give the Browns an early lead on Sunday – fully unleashing Myles Garrett on Houston's putrid pass attack. This could get out of hand quickly if the Browns take an early lead.
Final Browns-Texans Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Browns -7.5 (-114)
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