Subscribe
Follow Us
It is difficult to map out one single nightmare scenario for the Houston Texans in the upcoming NFL playoffs. Based on how they are currently playing against quality competition, the team could be staring down Freddy Krueger for the remainder of the 2024-25 campaign. Injuries and poor play are tanking this squad's postseason aspirations, but there is still a path out there that is not rife with doom.
The question is, though, will such mercy be bestowed on the Texans. Lady Luck has turned her back on NRG Stadium, with the AFC South champions dropping three of their last four home games, one of which came at the hands of the lowly Tennessee Titans. Therefore, a cushy matchup does not exist. The offense is hooked up to tubes at this point, and it will be extremely challenging for it get back on its feet before the playoffs start.
An identity shift might be essential if Houston is hoping for an extended stay in the postseason. The pass-catching options are severely limited, CJ Stroud is making ill-advised throws and Joe Mixon is running out of gas at the worst possible time. Head coach DeMeco Ryans must trust his defense to elevate its performance and take the pressure off his quarterback.
This approach can realistically be implemented against any potential Wild Card Weekend opponent, but one in particular could greatly test the Texans' will. And it is the one they would play if the regular season ended today.
Steelers could give the Texans a big headache in playoffs
My credibility is probably being questioned right now, if it hasn't already. I know what you're thinking. “The Texans are actually supposed to quiver at the thought of facing the only postseason squad that is actually colder than than they are right now? Get out of here with that.” Everyone starts fresh next week, though.
The three teams presently slotted in the AFC Wild Card slots all ooze vulnerability. The Denver Broncos are led by a rookie QB and lack playmakers, the Los Angeles Chargers' backfield might not be able to overcome its chronic injury concerns and the Pittsburgh Steelers are fading fast on both sides of the ball. With that being said, Houston should want to steer clear of the best pass-rusher on the board.
While the Kansas City Chiefs were able to stifle TJ Watt on Christmas Day, I do not foresee the Texans having the same type of success against the Defensive Player of the Year contender (also won in 2021). They stack a bottom-tier offensive line and are even more vulnerable without veteran Shaq Mason. Stroud and Mixon are desperate to solve the riddle that is the Houston offense, and Watt can be a Rubik's Cube in the trenches when at his peak form.
DeMeco Ryans and his coaching staff possess the ingenuity to devise a formidable game plan, but executing it is a different matter altogether. With a shaky offensive line, No. 90 has a decent chance to be at or close to his best in the trenches. Though, Watt is not the only potential landmine the Texans will have to dodge.
The Steelers contain pivotal intangibles that could prove to be burdensome for the No. 4 seed in the AFC.
Pittsburgh can be sneaky in this specific situation
Houston gained invaluable experience by advancing to the playoffs and winning a Wild Card game versus the Cleveland Browns in 2023-24. In theory, it should be mentally prepared for a wild environment and heightened style of play. The Texans are far from the finest version of themselves, however. When an identity crisis is not rectified before the postseason, not even home field is necessarily enough to push a team forward.
As stated before, momentum is with neither Houston nor Pittsburgh. But the latter is more familiar with the spotlight and can deliver the brand of football needed to win an ugly road playoff matchup. Mike Tomlin is a Super Bowl champion who has coached in almost 20 postseason games. Russell Wilson was an interception away from raising up a second Lombardi Trophy. Those two men have seen a lot in their time.
They can outsmart or outlast a squad with less playoff experience, specifically one that appears to be on a level playing field with theirs. CJ Stroud is sloppy right now (three picks in last two weeks), and the Steelers' QB/HC duo and defense can exploit that weakness in a must-win showdown. Even if the 2023 Rookie of the Year does channel last year's heroics, though, the Texans' secondary could still have its hands full with the unpredictable George Pickens.
In short, Pittsburgh just feels like a disadvantageous draw. Additionally, avoiding the Steelers could also be indirectly beneficial for Houston.
If Steelers fall to No. 6, Houston's long-term odds might go up
Considering I just expressed quite the gloomy outlook about the Texans, it seems a little strange to gaze at the big picture. But with so many question marks facing this team, looking ahead actually feels like the more practical approach to take in this exercise. Assuming the AFC bracket goes the way of chalk, Houston would have to face the two-time reigning champion Chiefs on the road the following weekend.
They say it is better to get an unpleasant task over with, but a little procrastination helps in this instance. A Divisional Round collision with the Buffalo Bills, a team the Texans beat in 2024, could be more appealing. Don't get me wrong, this might just be a case of choosing where to have a final meal. I am keenly aware that the Bills have an argument to be the most lethal AFC foe. Nevertheless, the aura is so strong in KC.
The Chiefs are lacking in style points this season, but they have inexplicably escaped the jaws of defeat on multiple occasions, or rather watched their opponents leap right into them. The football gods ostensibly retain residence in Arrowhead Stadium, while Orchard Park can sometimes be a fortress of misfortune.
But how do the Texans get there? Simple, they have to win and the Ravens (or Buffalo) must lose.
Texans might actually need to root for the Steelers
The Chargers are better than the Steelers at this moment, but only one of those teams has defeated the expected AFC North champs this season. Despite being outclassed by Baltimore on Dec. 21, Pittsburgh is historically a rough matchup for Lamar Jackson.
A postseason battle between those two franchises could truly put the “Wild” in Wildcard Weekend. Chaos and physicality could run rampant in M&T Bank Stadium. Ideally, the Texans' path would then widen.
Just as long as they vanquish the Chargers, of course. A fairy-tale bedtime story is going to be tough to come by for DeMeco Ryans' bunch, but this hypothetical playoff schedule might be the least excruciating scenario. And that is all Houston can reasonably ask for.
