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There are generally four things a team needs to win the Super Bowl in this modern era of NFL football. Anybody can technically win the Super Bowl any year, of course, but more often than not, you'll notice that these four factors come into play at the end of the season — and especially in the NFL playoffs.
First, a playoff team has to be lucky. For as talented as playoff teams are in the NFL on a year-in, year-out basis, that's simply just part of the equation. The ball has got to bounce your way a few times in a game in which a fingertip can be the difference between winning and losing.
Second is talent, of course. Some teams have that, and some teams don't, even in the modern NFL, which has certainly prioritized parity. You put the Detroit Lions' current roster up against the current New York Giants' roster, and there's likely going to be a blowout.
Third is momentum, and that's something that every wannabe playoff team can control. You have to win a certain amount of games to make it into the dance, but frankly, big wins in October and November mean far less than big wins in December and January. In the NFL, it's not how you start the season but rather how you finish it. You've got to be playing your best football at the right time to make the Super Bowl, which means that sometimes it's not even the best teams that make it to that all-coveted Sunday.
And finally, the fourth factor and perhaps the biggest predictor of playoff success is health. That's the frustrating thing about the game of football because health is largely uncontrollable.
Players can treat their bodies right before and after games, and there's something to be said for players who are in better shape than others having more luck when it comes to getting dinged up. Still, whether you look like D.J. Metcalf or the middle-aged dad down the street, a sprained ankle is a sprained ankle.
Some players may have the mental fortitude to deal with pain better than others, but when things go south for an NFL team on the injury report, that generally means that making a run to and through the playoffs just got a whole lot harder.
That's just a fact, and as such, it's the fact that the two best teams in the league this season are going to have to deal with.
Patrick Mahomes is banged up heading into the stretch run for the Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are 13-1, and they're the defending back-to-back Super Bowl Championships. There's a real chance that they can be the first-ever three-peat in the Super Bowl era, but they're not going to be doing anything if Patrick Mahomes doesn't play or even if he's severely hobbled.
That's bad for the Chiefs because Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain against the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs don't think it's a bad sprain, via ESPN, but whether or not he plays in Week 16 (on a Saturday, mind you) against the Houston Texans is up in the air.
To make matters worse for the Chiefs, they'll play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, meaning that by the time that game is completed, they'll have played three games in 11 days. A healthy quarterback would find that workload taxing, but Mahomes is banged up, and we're not even talking bout playoff stretches just yet.
His health is something to keep an eye on. Yes, a banged-up Mahomes is better than many quarterbacks, but there's not much time for rest from here on out if the Chiefs want to make another Super Bowl run.
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Lions have terrible injury luck in 2024
Speaking of Super Bowl runs, many expected the Lions to be a Super Bowl favorite this season, and despite their recent loss to the Buffalo Bills, they very much still are. The Lions are 12-2, and they've got arguably the most complete offense in football, but they just took a massive hit to that offense with the news that running back David Montgomery is out for the rest of this season with a sprained MCL.
“Looks like he's going to require surgery that'll put him out for the rest of the year. He had gotten it at some point yesterday in that game,” Campbell said on Monday, according to Eric Woodyard of ESPN. “I mean, David's so tough. He continued to play through and then got it checked out today and realized that's what it was. He's just the ultimate teammate, the ultimate competitor. We're going to miss him, man.”
The Lions are going to miss Montgomery, his 775 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. And sure, they still have Jahmyr Gibbs, his 1,047 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, so the depth is there. However, Detroit's offense has been at its best when it's been able to pair the “thunder” of Montgomery's hard style of running with the “lightning” of the speedy and athletic Gibbs. They call themselves Sonic and Knuckles for a reason.
It remains to be seen if Gibbs will have the same juice as an every down back, but the Lions are sorely going to miss Montgomery's physicality. Montgomery is also far from their only major injury.
In the same update, defensive tackle Alim McNeill (torn ACL), cornerback Khalil Dorsey (ankle), and cornerback Carlton Davis III (fractured jaw) will all miss the rest of the season, ESPN relayed.
The Lions played against the Buffalo Bills with 13 defensive players on the injured reserve, including star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson (who was lost for the season in Week 6), and that number is only going to go up in their Week 16 clash with the Chicago Bears.
The Lions are a locked-in playoff team, but they still haven't locked up the NFC North with the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings hot on their trail.
From potentially the hands-down favorite to come out of the NFC earlier this season to now in a dogfight to win the division and stay healthy enough to even win a game in the playoffs, the Lions' disastrous 2024 injury luck is proof that more than anything, health matters when it comes to the NFL playoffs.
