The Kansas City Chiefs have built their dynasty on dominance and a flair for winning big games under Patrick Mahomes. The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, are trying to flip the script. After a promising 11-6 season in Jim Harbaugh’s debut as head coach, the Bolts want to prove they’re ready to finally dethrone their AFC West rival. They’ll get their first chance in a global spotlight when the two teams open the season in Brazil. It’s a clash of a perennial powerhouse and a team desperate to prove it belongs among the NFL’s elite. It's a perfect recipe for an opening-week thriller.
Chiefs and Chargers set to open season in Brazil
AFC West foes will meet on neutral ground when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2025 NFL São Paulo Game in Brazil on Friday, Sept. 5. It’s a rare international opener, staged at Neo Quimica Arena with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Kansas City, fresh off a 15-2 campaign, has made 10 consecutive playoff trips and remains the standard-bearer of the division. The Chargers, meanwhile, reached the Wild Card round in Harbaugh’s first season but know that respect only comes with beating the Chiefs.
The storyline here is clear: Mahomes and the Chiefs continue their pursuit of yet another Super Bowl. For their part, Justin Herbert and the Chargers are fighting to change the narrative. Los Angeles has lost seven straight games to Kansas City. In fact, Herbert’s career record against Mahomes sits at 2-7. If the Bolts want any hope of making 2025 their year, it starts with winning this matchup. And yet, history suggests otherwise. The Chiefs have made an art of breaking Chargers’ hearts, and Mahomes’ Week 1 dominance is well-documented. This opener will reveal whether the gap has finally closed, or if Kansas City’s dynasty still rules the AFC West.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Chiefs and the Chargers in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.
Mahomes throws for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns
Mahomes is a Week 1 machine. In seven career openers, he has thrown for 2,059 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. When the spotlight is brightest, Mahomes delivers. Against the Chargers, he’s been nearly as devastating: 3,270 yards, 27 touchdowns, and only seven picks across 12 career meetings. That history is no accident. It's a combination of Mahomes’ brilliance, Andy Reid’s game-planning, and Travis Kelce’s reliability as his safety valve.
Expect more of the same in São Paulo. The Chargers’ defense is improving, but slowing down Mahomes in Week 1 borders on impossible. He’ll spread the ball around, exploit mismatches, and hit Kelce in key moments. Three touchdowns and nearly 300 yards is a bold call, but with Mahomes’ track record in season openers, it feels like the safest bold prediction of them all.
McConkey has 80+ receiving yards and a touchdown
On the flip side, the Chargers have a rising star of their own in Ladd McConkey. After a breakout rookie campaign with over 1,100 yards, McConkey enters Year 2 as the focal point of Harbaugh’s offense. That is especially true with running back Najee Harris expected to be out or limited. Note that the Chiefs’ defense ranked just 18th in passing yards allowed last season (218.8 per game). Even with improvements in the secondary, McConkey’s versatility will be difficult to contain.
Look for Herbert to target him early and often. Whether it’s slants, deep crossers, or red-zone looks, McConkey has the speed and route-running polish to make plays against Kansas City’s corners. A line of 80+ yards and a touchdown would further cement his status as one of the league’s next great receivers. If the Chargers are going to have a chance in this game, McConkey must be their offensive spark.
Herbert has 280 yards but gets sacked twice
Justin Herbert has all the tools to be an elite quarterback. However, his record against Kansas City tells the story of near-misses and heartbreak. He’s just 2-7 against Mahomes. Too often the Chargers have come close only to falter late. This game offers a chance to change that narrative, but it won’t come easily. The Chiefs’ defensive front, featuring Chris Jones, will collapse the pocket and force Herbert into uncomfortable spots.
Herbert will get his numbers, though. Expect him to throw for around 280 yards as he leans on McConkey and Keenan Allen. That said, sacks will be an issue. Two key takedowns, particularly on third down, could stall drives and make the difference in a tight contest. For Herbert, this game is less about stats and more about proving he can beat Mahomes in a high-pressure moment. Until he does, the questions will remain.
Chiefs win a close one
This international opener has all the makings of a classic. Both teams have playoff-caliber rosters, and both know the importance of striking first in a loaded AFC. However, when it comes down to the final minutes, history leans heavily toward Kansas City. Mahomes and Kelce thrive in clutch situations, and the Chargers have repeatedly come up short in this matchup.
Expect the game to stay close, with the margin decided by turnovers. Harbaugh will have his team prepared, but the Chargers can’t afford mistakes. Unfortunately, against Kansas City, mistakes are inevitable. A final score around 27-23 feels right, with Mahomes delivering a game-winning drive to make it eight straight wins over the Bolts.
Final thoughts
The NFL couldn’t have picked a better international showcase than Chiefs vs. Chargers in Brazil. It’s Mahomes’ dynasty against Harbaugh’s hopefuls. It's a clash of proven greatness versus rising ambition. Early indications suggest Mahomes will dominate once again, McConkey will shine, Herbert will fight valiantly but take his lumps, and the Chiefs will pull out a narrow victory.
For Kansas City, it’s another chance to show why they’re still the league’s gold standard. For Los Angeles, it’s another opportunity to prove the future is finally here. Still, in the AFC West, there’s a simple truth: until someone beats Mahomes, the road to the crown still runs through Kansas City.
