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With a rather unexpected loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 18, the Los Angeles Chargers finished as the fifth seed in the AFC. They will face the fourth-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. That said, let's look at our Chargers 2023 NFL Playoffs predictions after their Week 18 loss.
Remember that in Week 3 of the regular season, the Jaguars emerged victorious over the Chargers, 38-10. At the time, however, Justin Herbert had recently sustained a fractured rib, Keenan Allen was unable to play, and both Rashawn Slater and Joey Bosa had suffered long-term injuries.
Entering the playoffs now, the Jaguars have won their last five games to win the AFC South. This marks their first playoff appearance since 2017. On the other hand, the Chargers, with a record of 10-7, won four out of their last five games. This earned them the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. This is the first time the franchise has made it to the playoffs since 2018.
That said, here are four predictions for the Chargers in the playoffs following their loss in Week 18.
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eyes on jax.
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) January 9, 2023
4. Chargers Defense Will Be Challenged
Since the beginning of their successful run in Week 14, the Chargers have had the second-best drop-back success rate in the league at 35.6 percent. In comparison, their drop-back success rate was ranked 17th in the league from Weeks 1-13. Their improved secondary is crucial to their playoff chances, especially since they still have weaknesses in their run defense.
Take note that coach Brandon Staley received criticism for playing his starters in the meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos. Unfortunately, star defensive end Joey Bosa suffered an injury during the game. The good news is that the injury is not considered serious. Bosa is expected to play in the Wild Card game this weekend.
With Bosa expected to play, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence might get a bit anxious. The Jags just lost starting left tackle Cam Robinson to a knee injury. This means the less experienced Walker Little will be starting in his place. As such, Bosa should record at least one more sack here. Still, he cannot carry the Chargers defense alone. Lawrence is good enough to carve the Los Angeles D apart if they're not careful.
3. Ekeler Explosion
Austin Ekeler's performance during the regular season was a tad inconsistent. He had nine games where he rushed for less than 40 yards. This led to the Chargers rushing attack ranking 30th in the league with less than 90 yards per game on average. This is significant because Ekeler's production will affect how Herbert can create a more balanced attack against the Jaguars defense.
Jacksonville has done a pretty good job of limiting opposing QBs' effectiveness. As such, Ekeler should have heavy involvement in the game. We expect him to touch the ball at least 20 times. He may also have an advantage in matchups against linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd.
We foresee an Austin Ekeler explosion here to the tune of 100+ total yards and one touchdown.
2. Justin Herbert will look good
The Chargers have a talented quarterback in Justin Herbert. Recall that he was the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Herbert ranks second in the league in passing yards with 4,739 and eighth in passing touchdowns with 25. He has also completed at least 74 percent of his passes in five of the last eight games.
In Week 18, Herbert completed 25 out of 37 passes for 273 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also carried the ball twice for negative one yard and fumbled once but recovered. Despite the team's playoff positioning being secured, Herbert and the other first-string players played the majority of the game. During the regular season, Herbert also had eight games with multiple touchdowns.
We expect him to look really good in this game against Jacksonville. Yes, the Jags have limited opposing QBs, but Herbert is built differently. He should go over 290 total yards here with two touchdowns.
1. Chargers will fall just short against the Jaguars
The outcome of this game is likely to be determined in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. As good as Herbert is, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has also been playing exceptional football recently. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has thrown 15 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions since week 9.
Jacksonville's pass rush is also well-matched to face the Chargers offense. The Jaguars have been averaging 3.2 sacks per game during their current 5-game winning streak. They will play against a Chargers offensive line that allows pressure on 35.8 percent of snaps. That is the 9th highest in the NFL.
Jacksonville is also hungry. The team has made only three playoff appearances in the last 22 seasons and won only two playoff games. However, it seems that something is different this season. Head coach Doug Pederson has brought in experience and veteran confidence, creating a good mix with the team's youthful roster. And it's worth noting that the coaching advantage is on the Jaguars' side.
This will be a tough road game for the Chargers. They'll fight tooth and nail and make this close. They will have a chance to win. However, the Jaguars will defeat them in the opening game of the AFC Wild Card Round.
