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Ever since his arrival in the NFL, Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams has been considered one of the best running backs in football. That leaked over into the Fantasy Football realm, as he's routinely a top-three pick.
However, things are changing. Gurley's knee is becoming a significant problem. So much so that the Rams drafted another running back (Darrell Henderson) in the third round this year. In fact, they traded up for that pick.
It's not fair to speculate, but it's pretty clear something is going on even if that something is simply that the Rams don't want to give Gurley such a heavy workload from this point on.
Los Angeles might not be doing the traditional two-back offense. This probably won't be an even split on carries. Gurley will still get the bulk, however, don't expect anything like years past. Clearly, Henderson was brought in to take pressure off him and get some touches himself.
With that in mind, this diminishes Gurley's fantasy value. He's still one of the most talented running backs in the NFL though. At the same time, he's still on one of the best offenses in the league as well. That means that he'll get ample opportunities for big gains, receptions and of course touchdowns.
All of that keeps Gurley as an obvious early draft pick in any Fantasy Football draft. He's simply not that consensus top-three guy anymore.
The problem with ranking fantasy players is pretty simple; there are so many different types of leagues. You could be in a scoring only or PPR. Then with PPR, there are tons of different ways to get points. There are also dynasty and keeper leagues, and the list keeps going.
It also doesn't help Gurley's case that a few other running backs have emerged. Saquon Barkley was a roaring success in his rookie campaign with the New York Giants. At the same time, James Conner came on strong last year as the Pittsburgh Steelers new number on the back.
There are also the obvious names, like the multi-talented players such as Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. Ezekiel Elliott deserves all the praise in the world for his talent, and a healthy David Johnson's one of the best in the NFL.
Joe Mixon was a star last year, and Melvin Gordon's a touchdown machine, while Derrius Guice could be a massive player in 2019 as well.
Of course, it's not just running backs to contend with either. A quarterback like Pat Mahomes could sneak in front, and there are quite a few wide receivers as well. I won't list them all here because there are a good 10 that have credible arguments.
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All this equals out to mean that there's a chance Gurley isn't even a first-round pick in your Fantasy Football draft.
That felt ridiculous to type and probably looks even worse reading it. However, if you step back and analyze it – it makes sense.
There's a lot of talent in the NFL – too much to be taking a player with injury concerns and a semi-splitting of the duties. If you're taking a running back early, it's either a true workhorse or someone who can get you 70-plus catches. There's a strong chance Gurley isn't either of those next year.
That being said if you have a late first-round pick, you shouldn't completely pass him up. At least give him a look. However, the most likely spot for Todd Gurley to be targeted in Fantasy Football Drafts this season is *gulp* the second-round.
There are three running backs that should 100 percent be taken ahead of him in Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Christian McCaffrey. Alvin Kamara should more-than-likely be taken ahead of him as well. Then there are wildcards like James Conner and David Johnson. Receivers like Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Antonio Brown get the rub ahead of him. While a few others could jump in front as well.
Gurley simply won't be getting the massive workload this season. Even if he does, have you heard anything about his knee that makes you feel positive he'll be healthy for all 16 games?
It's a tough one to admit, but Gurley might be someone's second-round pick in your league. Hopefully, it's you.
