The New York Yankees are expected to make a strong push to retain Juan Soto when his contract expires at the end of the season. If they are unsuccessful, however, the Philadelphia Phillies are favorites to sign him.
Betonline released its odds for Soto's next team, if not the Yankees, on Tuesday, with the Phillies leading the way at +500 odds. The Boston Red Sox, the Yankees' archrivals, are just behind them at +600, with the Cubs (+700), Blue Jays (+800), and Mets (+900) rounding out the top five.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said earlier in the season that he wanted to see the 25-year-old Soto finish his career in pinstripes, even seeming willing to negotiate an extension in-season. But Soto is a Scott Boras client, and as one executive said in May, that means there was “no chance” of that happening.
“I think he ultimately signs back with the Yankees, but Scott takes his guys into free agency,” that executive added, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
Wherever Soto goes, it will be at a mind-blowing price tag. The Phillies are one of the few teams that can both afford him and are willing to spend. They will have about $24 million coming off the books for next year, but that's assuming they don't retain Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia currently has the fourth-highest payroll in baseball at $246 million, and bringing back Wheeler and adding Soto would likely vault them into the top two, at minimum.
It would also give a team that is already a World Series contender one of the best players in the game.
What a Juan Soto contract could look like with the Phillies
No matter where Soto goes, his next contract will, at minimum, be worth in the neighborhood of half a billion dollars. He's having the best season of his career as a member of the most scrutinized franchise in the game, heading into a free-agent season in which he is still younger than most in his class.
Under the bright lights of the Bronx, Soto is hitting .293 with 37 home runs and almost a month of games left. That gives him an OPS of 1.005 and a bWAR that is on pace to eclipse 8.0.
Keep in mind that Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension with the Washington Nationals two years ago. Today, a 15-year deal would take him through his age 39 season, and it's not absurd to think a team would be willing to commit to him for that long.
Everyone from fans to other executives have tried to project what Soto will fetch in free agency, with predictions sometimes soaring beyond $600 million. The Athletic's Tim Britton did this exact exercise on Tuesday, landing on 14 years and $560 million, giving him an AAV of $40 million per year. He also pointed out that due to the value and length of the contract, it is likely that his new deal will break the all-time record for highest total value. Shohei Ohtani holds the current record at $437.8 million, only held down by most of that money being deferred to the end of his career.
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