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The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins face in the final game of a four-game series. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Marlins prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Phillies took game one of the series on a solid effort from Taijuan Walker. He went 6.2 innings, giving up just two runs, as the Phillies won 4-2. In the second game of the series, it was more of the same. Ranger Suarez went 6.1 innings and gave up just one run, but he left the game down 1-0. Sandy Alcantar pitched eight shutout innings and gave way to the Marlins' new closer, David Robertson. In his second appearance as a member of the Marlins, Robertson took the mound with a one-run lead. After issuing a walk to Kyle Schwarber, he struck out Alex Bohm before a Bryce Harper double that scored a run. Then Nick Castellanos hit a two-run home run to give the Phillies the lead, which they would hold on to.
Game three saw the Phillies continue the theme of solid pitching. First, Castellanos and Bryson Stott gave the Phillies the lead in the fourth, and then the Phillies added two more in the sixth. Zach Wheeler gave up his first runs of the game on two solo home runs to Josh Bell and Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the sixth inning, but still, he went six innings giving up just two runs and left the game with the lead. The Marlins made the come back though, as the Phillies bullpen gave up the lead and the Marlins won in 12 innings.
Now the Phillies will look to get back to winning, and hope to continue to get good solid pitching, as their newest weapon, Michael Lorenzen heads to the mound today.
Here are the Phillies-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Marlins Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+138)
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-166)
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Marlins
TV: NBCSP/BSFL
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 12:10 PM ET/ 9:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies bullpen this year ranks tenth in ERA, but they’ve blown the lead after the Phillies had a great start for third straight game. On the year the Phillies are 11th in ERA, eighth in WHIP, and 11th in opponent batting average. They are also tied for sixth in quality starts. Today, Michael Lorenzen will make his first start as a member of the Phillies. As a member of the Tigers this year, he was 5-7 with a 3.58 ERA. He was great in July. His last time out was the first time he gave up a run in July, going his first three starts and 18.2 innings without giving up a run. For the month, he went 3-1 with a 1.14 ERA.
On the offensive end, the Phillies did score eight runs last night, but it was not enough. It was the most runs they had scored in the last nine games. On the year, they are 17th in runs scored this year, with an 11th-ranked batting average, and 13th-ranked on-base percentage. The Phillies also sit 15th in slugging as well. The offensive star for the Phillies was once again Alec Bohm. He drove in three runs last night on a 4-6 perfromance. Since the start of July, Bohm now has 21 RBIS, while hitting .354. He also has three home runs and six doubles in that time.
Bryson Stott also drove in a run last night. With his 3-5 performance at the plate, Stott is currently tenth in the majors in batting average at .303 on the year. Since the start of July, Stott is hitting over .333 while scoring 17 runs. He has also driven in nine runs and hit two home runs. Joining Stott in hitting well is Johan Rojas. Since making his major league debut on July 15th, he has hit .286 with six RBIs. He has also stolen three bases and hit two doubles. The biggest issue has been strikeouts. He has struck out ten times, including five times in this series.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins made a huge comeback last night. They scored two runs in the eighth, and another in the ninth to send it to extra innings. Down two in the tenth, they tied it again. Then, down one in the 11th, they tied it again. Finally, they won it in the 12th. On the year they are third in batting average, but sit 14th in on-base percentage, 20th in slugging, and 24th in runs scored. Last night it was Jesus Sanchez who drove in two runs including the game-winner. He has been hitting well for a while. Since the start of July, he is hitting .308 with 12 RBIs and three home runs. Sanchez also had five doubles and scored six times in that time frame.
Meanwhile, Jon Berti is coming into this game hot, driving in two more runs last night. Since the start of July, he has hit .377 with seven RBIs. Berti has also scored 11 times since then, and stolen four bases. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also hit his first home run since returning from the IL. In his two games since coming back from injury he is 2-9 with a home run, an RBI and three runs scored. While he had just one hit last night, it was a big one, and he also scored two more times.
Newcomer Josh Bell also had his first game as a member of the Marlins. He went 4-5 with a home run, two RBIS, a walk, and two runs scored. Bell was not hitting great when he came over from Cleveland. He hit just .239 in July but did have three home runs, three doubles, and 11 RBIs. He also scored nine times in the month.
On the mound for the Marlins, today will be Johnny Cueto making his fourth start of the year. He is currently 0-2 on the year with a 5.06 ERA. His last start saw him have some issues with home runs. He gave up two long balls and four total runs in six innings of work as the Marlins lost to the Tigers. Since coming back from the IL, that was his worst appearance though. In three appearances he has a 3.00 ERA in 15 innings of work.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup in this game is interesting. Lorenzen has been solid most of the year but has not gotten much run support being a member of the Tigers. Meanwhile, Cueto is coming in with a very short sample size. He got hurt in his first start of the year, and that has skewed his numners. Since then, he has been alright, but not amazing. He is still a capable pitcher and as long as he avoids the big fly, he should be just fine. The Marlins offense had been struggling but came alive late last night. They should still get some good hits today, but it will not be enough as the Phillies win.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+138) and Under 8.5 (-118)
