The Los Angeles Rams sacrificed a ton to win Super Bowl 56, and they paid the price last season. The hard times were not supposed to stop there, though. An aging quarterback, a broken offensive line and an injury-plagued star wide receiver painted a murky picture for the immediate future.
Throw in the uncertainty surrounding the status of the head coach, and the 2023-24 NFL campaign looked to be the forerunner for a potential rebuild, or at least a transitional phase. A 3-6 start seemingly supported that notion. But then everything changed.
The Rams won seven of their last eight games to charge into the playoffs, with the only loss coming in overtime on the road to the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. It doesn't seem like the end of an era is upon us anymore. It is rather the restoration of the one that invigorated fans just a couple years ago. LA is the hottest team in the NFC, at the best time imaginable.
But- and you had to know this was going too well for me not to slip in a “but”- this team has a weakness that will derail their momentum this postseason. With an eagerly-anticipated Wild Card Weekend face-off with the Detroit Lions awaiting them on Sunday, we must discuss the fatal flaw that will ultimately send the Rams packing in the NFL playoffs.
A poor turnover differential will be the Rams' undoing
Los Angeles matches up fairly well against Detroit, with both teams proving adept at moving the ball downfield in the air and on the ground. Defense is neither team's strong suit and both could be prone to second-half lapses. In situations such as these, the home crowd would usually be considered the deciding factor.
Ford Field will be brimming with uncontrollable enthusiasm as the Lions host a postseason game for the first time in over 30 years. But the biggest concern the Rams should have going into this weekend, and potentially beyond, is their negative turnover differential.
They had the 11th-worst turnover margin in the regular season at -3, per ESPN, due mainly to their low takeaway total. The team recorded only 10 interceptions and five forced fumbles, placing the onus on its offense to put opponents away. And to be fair, the unit rose to the occasion, with quarterback Matthew Stafford reclaiming his top form in the final stretch of the year and rookie receiver Puka Nacua sprinting into the history books.
Deficiencies are amplified around this time of the year, though. It is difficult to see this group going on a deep run without truly disrupting opposing offenses. Even with future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald rushing at QBs, LA is not able to apply considerable pressure. That limits turnover opportunities, and thus opportunities to seize momentum.
The offense alone cannot carry Rams deep into January
Now, turnover differential admittedly does not tell the whole story. For example, the New York Giants led the NFL with a +12 but will be picking in the No. 6 hole in the 2024 NFL Draft, while the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles checked in a -11 and -10, respectively, despite each winning 11 games. But fans can clearly see the holes in those playoff squads, and they are detectable on the Rams as well.
Although former Los Angeles signal-caller Jared Goff occasionally combusts in games, he has posted another strong season and done an overall nice job of taking care of the football. The Lions are second in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards, which should keep the Rams' defense busy all nightlong. Safety Jordan Fuller, who is tied for most interceptions on the team with three, is currently questionable for the contest with an ankle injury.
Detroit has its own issues, with the status of sensational rookie tight end Sam LaPorta also uncertain. His possible absence could swing things in the road team's favor, but LA's ceiling is still capped by its inability to consistently win the turnover battle.
The path ahead contains too many landmines for LA to sidestep
If the Rams leave Detroit with a victory, thereby delivering Lions fans yet another agonizing memory, they will be forced to go through teams that can exploit their biggest flaw. The San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys are among the top 10 in turnover margin, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers not too far behind. While there are obviously many other variables that go into a playoff game, making plays and avoiding costly mistakes are essential to advancing through the NFC.
Matthew Stafford cut out the turnovers for almost the entirety of December, but there are fierce pass-rushers waiting to pounce on him. He and the Rams took advantage of inferior competition, while also sweeping the 9-8 Seattle Seahawks, holding off the 9-8 Indianapolis Colts in overtime and edging out the 49ers when both teams were resting starters. They struggled against the best.
Those type of traits could give head coach Sean McVay and his squad trouble Sunday night against the Lions, and should be what prevents them from truly vying for a conference title. But that doesn't mean fans still shouldn't celebrate this franchise's unforeseen success.
The present and future are significantly brighter than they had any right being after the way last season ended and this one started. The NFL playoffs are about living in the moment. So just enjoy the ride Rams fans, even if it comes to an abrupt halt on Wild Card Weekend.
Follow Us
Subscribe