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The NFL season kicks off Thursday night as the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Ravens-Chiefs prediction and pick.
It is a re-match of the 2023 AFC Championship game on Thursday night. The Baltimore Ravens enter the game after going 13-4 last year and winning the AFC North. The 13-3 record would earn them the top seed in the playoffs and the lone AFC first-round bye. From there, they would dispatch Houston 34-10 before hosting the Chiefs in the AFC title game. They would keep the game close early, being tied at the end of the first quarter, but they were down ten at the half. The Ravens held the Chiefs scoreless in the second half, but could only muster a field goal as they fell 17-10.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are looking to become the first NFL team to three-peat as Super Bowl Champions. Last year was a 25-22 overtime victory to grab their second Super Bowl win in a row. They also won 38-35 over the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. It was the Chiefs' fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years, and their third win. Further, the Chiefs have made the conference championship game six straight seasons.
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Ravens-Chiefs Odds
Baltimore Ravens: +3 (-120)
Moneyline: +128
Kansas City Chiefs: -3 (-102)
Moneyline: -152
Over: 46.5 (-110)
Under: 46.5 (-110)
How to Watch Ravens vs. Chiefs
Time: 8:20 PM ET/ 5:20 PM PT
TV: NBC/Universo
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Ravens Could Cover The Spread/Win
For the Ravens, the offense starts with Lamar Jackson. He. passes for 3,678 yards last year while completing 67.2 percent of his passes. Further, he has 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Jackson was also the team's leading rusher last year, with 821 yards. He also scored five times on the ground. Gus Edwards is gone, and he led the team in rushing touchdowns while sitting second in rushing yards last year. In comes Derrick Henry from Tennessee. Henry has run for 1,00 yards in five of his last six years, with the only miss being 937 yards in eight games. Further, he has scored ten or more touchdowns in each of the last six seasons.
In the receiving core, Odell Beckham Jr. is gone, but they bring back five of their six top guys. Zay Flowers returns after having 858 yards on 77 catches and five scores. Further, Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman fish out the receiving core. they combined for over 700 yards and five scores. Further, Mark Andrews is back after 544 yards and six scores in ten games, but he is currently listed as questionable. Still, Isiah Likely is a solid backup, after having 411 yards and five scores last year.
On defense, there are some major changes. Jadeveon Clowney and Patrick Queen are both gone, but Justin Madubuike is back. He led the team with 13 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss. Roquan Smith is back at linebacker after leading the team in tackles last year. Kyle Hamilton returns at safety. Last year he led the team with 13 pass breakups while also having four interceptions. He is listed as questionable though.
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Chiefs offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes completed 67.2 percent of his passes last year for 4,183 yards and 27 scores. He did have 14 interceptions last year though. Mahomes can also move too. Last year he was second on the team in rushing, coming away with 389 yards and two scores. His top targets are back as well. Travis Kelce returns at tight end after having 984 yards and five scores last year in 15 games. Rashee Rice is back after a solid rookie campaign. He went for 938 yards and seven scores last year. With Marquise Brown doubtful, that could mean targets for rookie Xavier Worthy. The first-round pick had three receptions for 62 yards and a score in the preseason.
In the backfield, Isaiah Pacheco returns. Last year was 935 yards and seven scored for Pacheco. He also brought in 244 yards receiving and two touchdowns. His backup, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, which means Samajae Perine should get some carries. He just joined the squad with Edwards-Helaire and Carson Steele. Perine was used as a receiving back last year in Denver, coming away with 50 receptions and 455 yards.
The defense will see the return of George Karlaftis and Chris Jones. They both had 10.5 sacks last year, while Jones had 13 tackles for a loss, and Karlaftis had seven. Chris Jones is listed as questionable though. Still, there are some changes in the secondary. L'Jarius Sneed was traded in the off-season, so Trent McDuffie will need to step up. He had seven passes defended last year, but no interceptions. Justin Ried is back at safety after leading the team in tackles, plus defending seven passes and having an interception.
Final Ravens-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
These two teams combined for just 27 points in the AFC Championship game. While the Ravens are missing some parts from that defense, they were still one of the best in the NFL and should be solid again. Further, many of the starters taking the field did not see a lot of action in the pre-season. New parts will need to knock off the rust, and this will be a slower starting game. Expect the Ravens to get Derrick Henry going and try to control the ball in a close and low-scoring opening game to the regular season.
Final Ravens-Chiefs Prediction & Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
