After much anticipation, the New Orleans Saints have emerged the victors of the Derek Carr sweepstakes on Monday. The two sides agreed to a four-year, $150 million contract with $100 million guaranteed.

On the surface, a deal of that magnitude for a quarterback who has yet to win a postseason game in his nine-year NFL career might seem a bit reckless by the Saints. However, the Big Easy will surely be brimming with plenty of excitement and hope following this all-in move by the franchise.

Fan bases want their franchises to draw a clear line in the offseason, so they know what to expect and how many tickets to purchase. Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has made it crystal clear this team expects to be in the playoffs. They could have been content with Jameis Winston, who led the team to a strong start when healthy in the 2021-22 season, but are instead betting a ton of cap space that Carr can restore the pride fans felt during the Drew Brees Era.

We are going to unpack the first major signing of the 2023 NFL free agency and determine if the Saints made a wise investment by making Derek Carr the new de facto face of the franchise. Let's break it down.

Derek Carr overview

Obviously, when a team decides to pay an athlete more than $35 million annually, fans will want to trust that the player in question can perform up to that contract. Derek Carr is a steady signal-caller who resides somewhere in the top half of QBs in the league. At his best, he can flirt with the top 10. Unfortunately, last season was among his worst. Carr completed just 61 percent of his passes and led the Las Vegas Raiders to a losing record.

Expectations were high for the entire team after trading for star wide receiver Davante Adams. He was among the individual standouts, as was running back Josh Jacobs. The Raiders as a whole, however, were in competition with the Denver Broncos all season long for biggest disappointment. Being the quarterback, Carr deserves part of that blame. Though, blowing several double-digit leads has to fall on the head coach, too.

The offense felt a bit disjointed under Josh McDaniels with Hunter Renfrow in particular having a more minimal role when on the field. Carr threw 14 interceptions the previous year as well, but when the pieces around him are solid and the coaching sound, one should reasonably expect Carr to take a team to at least the precipice of the playoffs.

Of course, the Saints will expect much more than fringe-contention. And they should. This is an optimal destination for the four-time Pro Bowler. Chris Olave had 72 receptions for over 1,000 yards in his rookie season. He should only improve. The defense ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed, per StatMuse. Carr has lacked that in his career. Dennis Allen does not have a good track record as a head coach but was helming the Raiders when they drafted Carr and maintains a strong relationship with him. That level of rapport could be invaluable.

Most conducive to this experiment breeding favorable results, though, is New Orleans' residence in the NFC South. There is not currently another established quarterback in the entire division. Carr makes the Saints instant favorites to earn the automatic playoff berth. Furthermore, the NFC is the less daunting conference. There are questions concerning every top team from last season.

When weighing all those factors, adding Derek Carr does not seem so risky as it does crucial.

Term of Contract

There is always the worry that a team will outbid itself. A quick glance at Carr's contract, and that is a reasonable assumption to make. But Loomis could not take any chances with the New York Jets also being in the mix for Carr. The team was already in suboptimal territory when it came to cap space, so this move will make it difficult to upgrade the roster further. The Saints may have to part with two longtime stars in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas Jr. to make the money work.

Contract restructures are an option, but given Kamara's declined production last season and Thomas' perennial injury problems, the offense could still survive without them. A quarterback was the top priority, and the alternatives tempted the Saints to go the most expensive route. The team was making noise in the playoffs with Brees well past his prime a couple years ago. The QB does not have to be the nucleus for this team to succeed.

This hefty price ownership is paying also factors in Carr's ability in high-pressure situations. He is deceptively dangerous late in games with 28 career fourth-quarter comebacks. The stats will not blow anyone away, but this is where the NFL is headed. The premium for a capable quarterback has sky-rocketed as the New York Giants are learning in their dealings with Daniel Jones. Carr's contract cannot simply be identified as an overpay when the market as a whole is overpaying for the position.

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JC Latham (Alabama), Chris Braswell (Alabama not Jaguars), Cornelieus Johnson (Michigan) in action behind a New Orleans Saints logo with a 2024 NFL Draft background.

Dylan Bruton ·

The millions that exceed actual value are not just buying wins. They are buying the luxury of not having to ride the tortuous QB carousel for the next several years. In that regard, the Saints have definitely accomplished their goal.

Final Grade for Derek Carr's Saints contract

There are pros and cons to the Saints signing Derek Carr, but when considering most of the negatives are the aforementioned facts of the market we must now accept, it seems like the right deal for both parties. Carr needed to escape the grueling AFC West and now enters a transition-heavy NFC South. Winning in the playoffs is the “but” he will have to live with for now. He should have a good chance to try to change that narrative going forward, though.

The no-trade clause seems a bit much and will knock down the contract grade a little. The 31-year-old just used that type of leverage in Las Vegas, so the Saints should have been extra cautious and left that concession out of this deal.  They can survive the cap hit, though, especially if certain players compromise for the good of a potential postseason run.

The overall takeaway from fans should be satisfaction. They have a clear path to a home NFC Wildcard Game. That could not be proclaimed before the Saints signed Derek Carr.

Grade: B+