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Former Philadelphia Eagles and Hall of Fame safety Brian Dawkins believes it'll be Saquon Barkley who ultimately wins the 2024 NFL MVP award. The veteran running back is in his first year with the Eagles and is within striking distance of breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards set in 1984. Barkley is 268 yards away and is on pace for 2,083 yards.
However, Dawkins makes sure to mention that Barkley needs to play those last couple of games, which means the Eagles need to be playing for something.
“If Saquon plays those couple of games at the end of the year, I believe it's going to be him,” says Dawkins in a one-on-one interview on behalf of his partnership with Boehringer & Lilly. “If they lock it up and they decide to rest him, then the other quarterbacks that are playing are going to win it. It's really a quarterback trophy. That's the way it's turned out.”
Dawkins isn't exaggerating. The MVP award has really become a quarterback trophy over the past 10-to-15 years, with the past 11 winners and the past 16 of 17 winners having been quarterbacks. The only running back to win the award in that time frame was Adrian Peterson in 2012, who won the award after rushing for 2,097 yards, the second-most in a single season in NFL history.
With Barkley nearing that rushing total, Dawkins argues that if he does indeed break the record, he deserves to win the MVP award. It's worth noting that Dawkins does believe Barkley will break the record.
“The quarterbacks put up such astronomical numbers sometimes that it just blows everybody else out of the water,” says Dawkins. “But because he's rushing to beat a potentially long-standing rushing title record and if he does that, he's the MVP.”
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It's hard for an RB to win MVP
It seems to be that a running back needs to break, or at least come close, to breaking a single-season rushing record in order to win the MVP award.
Barkley is considered the third favorite to win the MVP award, according to betting odds. The betting favorite is currently the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen, while the Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson — the reigning MVP — is considered next in line. While Allen is having a solid season, it's Jackson who is having a potentially record-breaking year, with a 121.6 passer rating on the season. The single-season record is held by Aaron Rodgers with a 122.5 passer rating.
However, it's also worth mentioning that Barkley has undoubtedly made the Eagles contenders again after they lost six of their final seven games to close out the 2023 season. His excellent level of production has also helped Jalen Hurts play better this season, with Hurts posting a 103.7 passer rating and just five interceptions in comparison to his 89.1 passer rating and 15 interceptions from last year.
The voters tend to lean towards quarterbacks in the voting process and they probably will do so again this season. However, Barkley's chase for the rushing record should probably earn him the MVP award when it comes to who actually deserves it.
