In 2021, the Phoenix Suns made a trip to the NBA Finals after being one of the laughingstocks of the league for quite some time. The Suns looked like they would be a force for a long time to come with Devin Booker and Chris Paul as the focal points of their team, but now there is a sense of urgency in the desert, especially with key decisions having to be made regarding Paul's future.
By trading for superstar Kevin Durant at the trade deadline this past season, the Suns have put themselves on the clock in terms of contending for a title. The young depth they once had is no more and by leveraging their draft assets for Durant, Phoenix fully expects to win a title in the coming years.
As a result, major financial decisions will have to be made. The Suns are already giving thought to moving on from their veteran point guard after he recently just finished up his third season with the organization. Paul has two more years left on his contract, but his contract is only partially guaranteed for $15.8 million and does not become guaranteed in full for the 2023-24 season until June 28. The final year of the deal is non-guaranteed.
Phoenix is already exceeding $165 million in total payroll for next season with just seven players having contracts entering the offseason, so cutting costs will be essential this summer. This is why the Suns are giving serious thought to the idea of waiving Paul, but there are a few ways they can approach this situation.
Option No. 1: Waive Chris Paul
If the Suns were to waive Paul before his deal was to become guaranteed, they would save about $15 million. This would essentially move them below the luxury tax apron of $169 million that they are attempting to avoid.
There is a catch, though,, as the Suns opening this door to waive Paul then presents them with other choices and doors to potentially open.
Based on this scenario of waiving Paul, the first choice that then comes to light for the organization is whether or not they want to get out of this contract in order to sign him to a more team-friendly deal. At 38 years old, the future Hall of Famer is nearing the end of his career and is not the All-Star player he once was. Not to mention, he would be taking a lesser role offensively with Durant and Booker leading the charge.
Paying $30.8 million to Paul at this point in his career would not be advantageous to the team whatsoever, especially given their overall financial crisis. Agreeing to a new deal after waiving him is certainly an option for the Suns, but once again, there is a catch to this.
In order for the Suns to waive and re-sign Paul, they would need to eat the $15.8 million partial-guarantee dead cap they would accumulate immediately. This would save the Suns a little bit of money heading towards free agency, and they would have their $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception accessible. On the other side of things, waiving and keeping Paul on a new, smaller deal would still cost them a lot this year, as they would essentially be paying Paul anywhere in the realm of $16 million to $22 million, including the money they owe him from his first contract, during the 2023-24 season instead of his full $30.8 million.
Waiving Paul also presents the option of not re-signing him and moving on from him as their lead point guard. In this scenario, the Suns would not have to worry about paying him in full next season, as they would have the ability to waive and stretch his contract over multiple years. Stretching the money they owe him over a five-year period would allow the Suns to open up their full non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.2 million this offseason to utilize in free agency. They would also operate with a much lower overall payroll if they were to let Paul walk in the offseason.
Option No. 2: Trade Chris Paul
As things stand right now, waiving Paul seems like the most likely outcome ahead of his June 28 deadline, as finding a trade for him will be tough to do. Very few teams are entering this offseason in a position where they can be aggressive and add a max-level salary to their roster. Any team that would want to take on Paul's contract would be responsible for paying him the full $30.8 million this season. While another team could trade and waive him, Phoenix does not really have assets to offer up as incentive in this situation.
The Suns continue to explore trade scenarios involving not only Paul, but center Deandre Ayton too, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Moving on from Ayton could bring more value to the Suns than a trade involving Paul could, and the ultimate goal is still to attempt to cut costs while remaining a championship contender. Possibly trading Ayton instead of Paul could resolve these issues, allowing the franchise to retain their veteran guard.
The ideas of waiving Paul or trading him ahead of his contact deadline are being explored by the organization right now, but as Wojnarowski stated ahead of Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals on Wednesday night, the Suns would like to find a way to “financially keep” Paul on their roster.
Obviously, the veteran would like to remain in Phoenix and contend for a title with the group he has been a part of through the years, but the Suns do have a lot of options that they need to try and sort through quickly. There are multiple avenues and paths that lead to Paul staying in Phoenix. Whether or not he keeps his current contract or is waived and signs a new deal is yet to be seen, but contrary to some reports, interest within the organization to keep Paul still exists.
So, what does all of this mean for Chris Paul and his future in the NBA?
Is Chris Paul's future in Phoenix or somewhere else?
The one thing that is certain is that Paul is not ready to retire quite yet. Should his time in Phoenix come to an end this offseason, he will be one of the premier names in free agency. Assuming he is waived and the Suns stretch his contract, Paul would be ineligible to return to the Suns and would immediately become a target for several playoff contending teams around the league.
The Los Angeles Lakers are a no-brainer suitor for Paul if he becomes available in free agency. His relationship with LeBron James has been well-documented through the years. Plus, the veteran would immediately help the Lakers as a primary facilitator and playmaker, taking a lot of stress off of LeBron and star big man Anthony Davis. With Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura being two free agents the Lakers would like to retain in the offseason, though, they may not be able to offer Paul more than a minimum-like deal or partial mid-level exception deal.
The Memphis Grizzlies are another team to keep an eye on this offseason in terms of adding an experienced point guard. There is no telling as to what will happen with Ja Morant and his possible suspension to start the year, which is why someone like Paul could immediately help the Grizzlies reach their championship potential.
The Los Angeles Clippers (Paul's former team), Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are a few other contending teams to consider as possible destinations for Paul if he was to hit the open market.
Owner Mat Ishbia and team president James Jones have a lot to sort through over the next few weeks, but at the end of the day, it may not make much sense for the Suns to part ways with Paul only for him to join another contending team in the Western Conference. Unless they move on from both Paul and Ayton, there is not really a strong chance the Suns could go out and land another star like James Harden or Fred VanVleet without being in the same financial situation they find themselves in now.
Would replacing Paul with a player like Harden or VanVleet and maintaining the same cap problems they have now really make the Suns that much better?
The Suns have a few plausible options right now regarding Paul. One of them does not revolve around a trade due to the fact that they do not hold much leverage in that scenario. Paul can be waived and have his contract stretched, resulting in his time with Phoenix coming to an end, he can be waived and re-signed by the Suns on a smaller contract, or the Suns can just keep him altogether and guarantee the $30.8 million on his contract for next season. The latter seems unlikely given their contract situation, but it still is an option.
This is a decision that will have a drastic impact on whether or not the Suns can win a title over the next few seasons. Trading for Durant and giving up all the assets they did was a huge gamble and, now, what they decide to do with Chris Paul is another gamble that could just force Ishbia and the Suns to go all in at the poker table.
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