It was a disappointing finish to 2022 for the Tennessee Titans, as they look to return to the playoffs in 2023. It is now time to continue our NFL odds series with a Tennessee Titans win total prediction and pick.

For the first time since Mike Vrabel took over as the head coach that the Titans had a losing season. It was also the first time since 2015 that the Titans had a losing record, finishing 7-10 last year, and second place in the AFC South. Long-time offensive lineman Taylor Lewan is gone, as is the top receiver from last year in Robert Woods. It is the second straight year that the Titans go into the season without their top receiver from the year before, as AJ Brown was traded last offseason.

Back on offense are Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Henry ran for 1,538 yards with 13 scores last year and will be looking to be the bell cow again for the offense. Tannehill is coming off a down season, and with second-round pick Will Levis looking over his shoulder, he needs to perform or be benched. The Titans are still looking to add DeAndre Hopkins to help out their QBs this year, but the Patriots are also said to be involved.

A defense led by Kevin Byard and Jeffery Simmons returns to the field for the Titans in 2023. This will be the strength of the team this year, with Simmons joined by Deico Autry, Teair Tart, and Naquan Jones on the line. Harold Landry should return from a torn ACL to bolster the linebacking core, but questions remain at inside linebacker. Sean Murphy-Buntin, Kirsitan Fulton, and Roger McCreary will be at the corner, with the potential of Caleb Farley finally having his breakout season. This was a defense that ranked 11th last year and is looking to improve.

Here are the NFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 7.5 wins: +104

Under 7.5 wins: -128

*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Tennessee Can Win 7.5 Games 

While the Titans draw a schedule set for a second-place team in the division, they do have a weak division to play in. While underdogs in week one, they could easily start 1-0. It will be Derek Carr's first game for the Saints in New Orleans, but much like the Titans, the Saints disappointed last year. Unlike the Titans, the Saints never felt they competed for the division, while injuries hurt the Titans last year. The Titans will be expected to be healthy for this game and can get the win.

A second win can come in week three after losing their home opener to the Chargers. The Browns provide another opportunity for a win if they can get to DeShaun Watson. This is a similar skill-level team with a better quarterback, and if Simmons and the company can cause some issues, they will win.

Chance three comes a week in Indianapolis. If Indianapolis has already moved to Anthony Richardson, this offense may not have gelled yet and Tennesse can get the win. It then is a loss in London before the bye. Then, they face Atlanta. Desmond Ridder has not shown he can be the answer, and Derick Henry will run all over his former offensive coordinator in the fourth win of the year. That is before a loss to the Steelers on Thursday night football, where Kenny Pickett has found his footing.

The Buccaneers host the Titans in week ten, and they will be running out Baker Mayfield. The Bucs will be in the running for Caleb Williams this year, and this should be a toss-up-style game. With the better running game, the Titans win for the fifth time. They continue their .500 season the next week with a loss in Jacksonville. This series has not split since 2019 but has split 17 of 26 years.

The Titans could get on a winning streak next. First is the Panthers, who will be rolling with a rookie quarterback, and will not be great this year. Then Indianapolis rolls out their rookie. Both will struggle against this stout defense getting the Titans to seven wins.

After a Monday night loss to the Dolphins, the Titans will still be in a position to make a playoff push. They play Houston in Weeks 15 and 17. Again, it is a rookie quarterback. Rookies will struggle against this defense. Mike Vrabel has one of the best defensive units in the league, and as long as the special teams is good for the Titans it can be two wins. In between is the Seahawks. Geno Smith will return to his normal self this year, which is not as good as Tannehill. The Titans win three in a row to get to ten wins before finishing out their season with a loss to the Jaguars.

Why Tennessee Can Not Win 7.5 Games

Ten wins are not out of the question for the Titans, but neither is six. First, it starts with a poor start to the season. If the Saints are at full speed, they could be in contention in the NFC South. The Titans have lost in week one of the last two years, and this could be more of the same. They should lose the Chargers, then if everything comes together for the Browns, they will be dangerous this year. After a loss to Cincinnati, that is an 0-4 start.

Then there is division play. If the Titans do not go 4-2 things could go south. If the Texans and Colts each get a win, which is possible, they could go 2-4 in division play. Both teams are turning a new leaf at quarterback. Richardson and Stroud have a lot of upside. If by the midpoints of their season, they have things figured out 2-4 in the division is very possible, as the Titans go to break in Will Levis.

Then there are the games against Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Carolina. Carolina is in a similar spot to Houston and Indianapolis. This is a week 12 game, and by then Bryce Young should be rolling. If he is, this could be a loss for the Titans. For Tampa Bay, this is about Bake Mayfield. When he is on, he is great. If he is having an on week, the Titans lose. The same goes for Geno Smith. If he can pick apart the secondary with DK Metcalf, the Titans lose.

Final Tennessee Titans Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Division play is a huge part of this win total. For the over to hit, 4-2 is very much necessary. After a 1-3 start, with the only win coming over the Saints in week one, the Titans only win three division games. Losses to Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Seattle compound issues. They also lose to the Dolphins but split the Panthers and Falcons. It is a 7-10 season for the Titans for the second straight year.

Final Tennessee Titans Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (-128)