The Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans for a divisional battle to end the 2023-24 regular season. It's time to continue our NFL odds series with a Texans-Colts prediction and pick.

This is one of the bigger games in the Week 18 slate. The winner heads to the postseason while the loser goes home. Furthermore, the winner of this game also has a chance to win the AFC South Division if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Because the Jags own the tiebreaker over the Texans, Houston must win on Saturday night to make the postseason.

The Colts have a similar path to the playoffs. A win secures them a spot but the seed is up in the air. They can still win the division if the Jags lose as well. It's unlikely, but if the Kansas City Chiefs were to lose to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and the Jags lose, then the Colts could move to the 3-seed due to their divisional record. With a loss, the Colts are done as the Jags also have the tiebreaker over them.

The schedulers were smart to put this matchup on primetime.

Here are the Texans-Colts NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Texans-Colts Odds

Houston Texans: -1.5 (-105), ML (-120)

Indianapolis Colts: +1.5 (-115), ML (+102)

Over: 47.5 (-110)

Under: 47.5 (-110)

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Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread

C.J. Stroud played very well in this 31-20 loss to the Colts back in Week 2 throwing for 384 yards and two passing touchdowns. Indianapolis stormed out to a quick 14-0 lead thanks to two Anthony Richardson rushing TDs. Richardson would later suffer a concussion and Gardner Minshew began his 2023-24 campaign as the eventual starter for the remainder of the year. Fast forward to now, Minshew has played very well and is proving to be one of the better QBs in the league this season. The battle between Stroud and Minshew should be a classic.

Stroud may have the Offensive Rookie of the Year locked up, but one more great outing would slam the door shut. Puka Nacua certainly is in the conversation but what Stroud has done to turn this franchise around deserves a lot of credit. The Texans started 0-2 to begin the year and have gone on to win nine of their last 14 games. They are favorites on the road which is a bit of a shocker considering they are (3-4) on the road this season. However, they are hot coming off a huge win over the Titans 26-3 as the defense looked very good.

If the defensive front plays the way they did against Will Levis and Ryan Tannehill forcing six sacks then Minshew may have some trouble on his hands. Will Anderson Jr. had two sacks in the win and broke the franchise record for sacks by a rookie in a season with seven. JJ Watt only had 5.5 sacks in his rookie campaign. The secondary consisting of Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, and Desmond King II is making strides as well. They have a tough test trying to contain Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs on Saturday night.

The Texans' defense must continue to play well if they want to win this game on the road.

Why The Colts Could Cover The Spread

The Colts have won three of their last five games and have put themselves in a great position to make a playoff run. However, it can't happen without a win against Houston. They enter as underdogs at home where they are (4-4) on the season.

In their first meeting against Houston, the Colts capitalized off of a great start as they went up 28-10 by halftime. Minshew came in and completed 19-23 passes for 171 yards and a TD. Now, this is a completely new Texans team compared to Week 2 but the Colts now have Jonathan Taylor back which they didn't have in the first meeting. Taylor and Zach Moss have formed an elite duo. Taylor is up to 553 yards on 4.0 yards per carry on the season. In nine games, he leads the team with six rushing TDs.

Moss is currently questionable with a forearm injury. Furthermore, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith are questionable for this game as well. The Colts desperately need Nelson and Kelly to be active against a rising defensive front for Houston.

Pittman Jr. has been one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL this season. He has surpassed 1,000 yards for the second time in his four-year career. For the first time in his young career, he has surpassed 100 receptions which has to be a thrill for him knowing he ended last year one catch shy of it. The last two weeks haven't been as kind to him as he has nine combined catches. Prior to that, the former USC Trojan caught at least eight passes in six consecutive games. Minshew and Pittman Jr. need to connect time and time again if they want to be successful.

Final Texans-Colts Prediction & Pick

It would be smart to wait and see if some of the Colts' offensive players will be active before wagering. The Colts are currently +1.5 at home and I think buying two points to +3.5 is the best call to make. Either way, the Colts are the call to make in this primetime matchup.

Final Texans-Colts Prediction & Pick: Colts +1.5 (-115)