Timberwolves vs. Heat prediction, odds, pick, how to watch – 12/18/2023

The Minnesota Timberwolves head over to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat at Kaseya Center on Monday night. Below is our NBA odds series as ClutchPoints hands out a Timberwolves-Heat prediction and pick. ClutchPoints will also let you know how to watch the game.

The Timberwolves (19-5) continue to roll and are coming off a couple of 18-point wins over their last two outings. They beat the Dallas Mavericks pretty handily despite a 3-of-19 shooting night from Anthony Edwards. Karl-Anthony Towns and Edwards combined for 77 points two nights later to take down the Tyrese Haliburton-less Indiana Pacers.

Meanwhile, the Heat (15-11) are riding the high of the first buzzer-beating game-winner of the season when Jimmy Butler drained a step-back jumper to take down the Chicago Bulls on Saturday, 118-116. Butler's dagger avenged a Heat loss to the Bulls a couple of days ago, where Miami fell to a 33-8 hole to start the game and never recovered.

The Timberwolves are 13-11 on the spread so far this season, but have covered in just five of their 12 road games. On the over/under, they are an even 12-12, with an 8-4 record away from Target Center.

As the best team in the West, Minnesota understandably enters this game as slight favorites. Led by Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves own the best defense in the NBA with a 106.6 defensive rating and have held their opponents to just 105.8 points per game this season. The French big man is once again having a Defensive Player of the Year-worthy campaign.

Unfortunately, there is a chance the Timberwolves will be without star guard Anthony Edwards, as he is listed as questionable due to a right hip pointer for Monday's contest. Edwards did enter Saturday's game against Indiana with the same tag and has been dealing with the injury since a hard fall during late November game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. So, it's looking likely that he should be able to suit up. Should Edwards be good to go, he will bring his all-around production of 24.2 points, 5.1 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game.

Karl-Anthony Towns has also recovered from a slow start to the 2023-24 season and is back to his All-Star form. On the season, KAT is averaging 22.4 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game, all while shooting 51.6 percent from the floor and 43.0 percent from three.

Apart from Edwards, Jaden McDaniels is also listed as questionable due to a sacral contusion.

Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread

Meanwhile, the Heat have gone just 11-15 against the spread this season and are just 3-9 at Kaseya Center. Miami has also split its 26 games on the over/under this season, but Heat games have gone over the point total in seven of their 12 games at home so far.

Miami should carry the momentum from a thrilling win where Jimmy Butler made the first buzzer-beating game-winner of the season. Butler, who is averaging 21.8 points this season, has been playing without his two co-stars in Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, but other guys have stepped up.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been a revelation for the Heat and is establishing himself as one of the top rookies of the class of 2023. On the season, the former UCLA stud is already playing a huge role for Miami. He is averaging 28.0 minutes a night while averaging 13.2 points on 51.7 percent field goal shooting, including 39.2 percent from beyond the arc.

Duncan Robinson is also having a resurgent campaign after seemingly falling out of the rotation at the end of last season. Robinson is averaging 14.7 points while connecting on over 43 percent of his threes.

The good news for Miami is that Herro and Adebayo are both listed as available for Monday's game. Herro has missed the last 17 games for the Heat due to a right ankle sprain, while Adebayo hasn't played in December due to a hip injury. However, veteran guard Kyle Lowry has been listed as out due to soreness.

Final Timberwolves-Heat Prediction & Pick

Take the Timberwolves for this game. They've been locked in on the defensive end all season and even in games where Anthony Edwards struggles, they still somehow find ways to win. Herro and Adebayo should be a major boost for the Heat, but they still need to find their rhythm after missing so much time.

Take the over for this as well. Miami has scored between 115 to 118 points over its last four, while Minnesota has averaged 120 points over its last four outings.

Final Timberwolves-Heat Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves: -1.5 (-110), Over: 217 (-110)