We're back with another UFC betting prediction and pick as the UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card continues with this next bout between UFC veterans in Welterweight (170) Division. Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson will take on Michael Chiesa as both fighters return to action in the octagon. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ferguson-Chiesa prediction and pick.
Tony Ferguson (25-10) has gone 15-8 through his storied UFC career since 2011. He's had a tough stretch through the twilight of his career as he's dropped seven-straight coming into this one, a streak that began against Justin Gaethje in 2020. He'll take another shot at redemption here against another formidable UFC vet. Ferguson stands 5'11” with a 76.5-inch reach.
Michael Chiesa (16-7) has gone 11-7 since his UFC debut back in 2012. Following a four-fight winning streak, Chiesa has lost three-straight against some of the best welterweights in the division. Doubling as an analyst for ESPN, he makes his return to the octagon as a fighter looking to capitalize on this opportunity. Chiesa stands 6'1″ with a 75.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Abu Dhabi Odds: Tony Ferguson-Michael Chiesa Odds
Tony Ferguson: +465
Michael Chiesa: -640
Over 2.5 rounds: -130
Under 2.5 rounds: +100
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Why Tony Ferguson Will Win
Tony Ferguson will make his return to the octagon following his most recent loss to Paddy Pimblett. While many were completely counting him out during that fight, he managed to avoid getting finished and actually had Pimblett in tough spots throughout the fight. It was a much stronger performance than his last two submission losses and we saw him fight a much smarter bout. While he's not in the shape he once was and his speed has taken a hit, Tony Ferguson is still one of the most creative fighters ever and stands to have a chance here if he can put together a smart, conservative game plan.
Tony Ferguson will be looking to work his boxing here as he respects the level of jiu jitsu that Chiesa fights with. Ferguson's most constant weapon has been his jab, which he keeps in front constantly and snaps when entering the pocket. He's struggled at times with finding the range against faster opponents than him, but Ferguson could see success here if he's able to cut Chiesa's movement off with that jab. We'll also get to see his skills on the mat as his opponent is likely to get this fight to the ground at some point.
Why Michael Chiesa Will Win
Michael Chiesa has had an incredibly tough three-fight stretch over the last few years in having to face Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Kevin Holland in his recent fights. Two of those were losses to a D'arce choke, so Chiesa will have to be careful as Ferguson likes to look for that choke quite often. Still, Chiesa should be in better physical shape ahead of this fight and he'll have the speed advantage in his movement around the cage. He's taken less wear-and-tear than Ferguson over these last few years and if he can avoid getting submitted, he should prevail as the heavy betting favorite.
Michael Chiesa displays very strong striking defense and will cover up, close the distance, and shoot for takedowns along the fence. He's a jiu jitsu black belt and with 10 of his wins coming by way of submission, he'll be looking to notch another one here and get back in the win column. Despite the odds, Chiesa won't be taking Ferguson lightly and we'll see him come into this fight very focused on earning the win. Look for Chiesa to welcome the striking exchanges until he decides it's time to chase the submission.
Final Tony Ferguson-Michael Chiesa Prediction & Pick
This will be an interesting fight between two veterans who are coming in on multi-fight losing streaks and would love to get a win back on their records. Tony Ferguson has been on his slide since 2020 and we've seen him continue to see bad fortune during his outings. Michael Chiesa has also been on the wrong side of his last three fights, but he's fought the much better competition during that time.
Tony Ferguson can have a chance in this fight if he plays it smart like the Paddy Pimblett fight. The one area he may have on Michael Chiesa is his creativity and variability in his submissions, so he should look for the d'arce choke and try to catch Chiesa off his guard here.
Still, I don't like what we've seen from Tony Ferguson over the last few years and it's hard to back him in a betting scenario. We have to roll with Michael Chiesa to get the win, but we'll give the benefit of doubt for both fighters to make it to the third round.
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Final Tony Ferguson-Michael Chiesa Prediction & Pick: Michael Chiesa (-640); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-130)
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