The time has finally come and UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill will conclude with a five-round main event in the Women's Strawweight (115 lb) Division between two ranked fighters. Brazilian Jiu Jitsu champion and No. 8 ranked Mackenzie Dern will take on a veteran in the sport in No. 14 ranked Angela ‘Overkill' Hill. Originally scheduled to take place last week, this fight was bumped to this main event spot and has serious implications in the division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Dern-Hill prediction and pick.
Mackenzie Dern is 12-3 overall as an MMA fighter and has gone 7-3 in her time with the UFC. She's a multiple-time BJJ world champion and has seven of her wins by patented submission. She made a quick rise to the top with her submission skills, but has slid in recent contests winning just one of her last three fights. Dern says the tough times are behind her as she's ready to position herself against top-5 competition. Dern stands 5'4″ with a 63-inch reach.
Angela Hill is 15-12 as a mixed martial artist and has gone 10-12 since becoming the first African American woman to fight for the UFC in 2014. She's a trailblazer of the Strawweight division and will always turn in an exciting fight. She's had a rough go as of late, winning just two of her last five fights with a few questionable decision-losses sprinkled in. She feels as though a win here would position her in the top-10 and give her a chance for more big-time fights. Hill stands 5'3″ with a 64.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Las Vegas Odds: Mackenzie Dern-Angela Hill Odds
Mackenzie Dern: -176
Angela Hill: +142
Over (4.5) rounds: -164
Under (4.5) rounds: +128
How to Watch Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Mackenzie Dern Will Win
Mackenzie Dern admits that she had a lot going on outside of the ring this past camp and will be ready to take her frustrations out on Angela Hill. She's a lethal submission artist and can almost always finish a fight if she remains in a favorable position on the ground. Her striking is still coming along, but it's been clear that her boxing has been a huge focus of her development as a fighter. Look for Dern to come out aggressive with her hands and try to surprise Hill. If things get hairy on the feet, Dern can always rely on her submission-ability.
Mackenzie Dern can win this fight if she looks for the takedown early and can get Angela Hill on her back early. Hill has had struggles with getting up from her back in the past, so Dern should try and get Hill where she's least comfortable. In the stand-up, Dern certainly has more power in her hands as Hill doesn't finish too often. If Mackenzie Dern can stun Hill with an overhand and then chase the submission, she should get the job done as the favorite here.
Why Angela Hill Will Win
Angela Hill continues to show that she's one of the more technical strikers in the strawweight division and each one of her fights is fun to watch. However, she's often getting downed on the judges' scorecards due to her lack of finishing ability, and it's been resulting in some costly wins for her. Her Muay Thai striking is about as pretty as it gets, but her last nine fights have gone to a decision. While Hill can total-up a huge amount of strikes in a hurry, her lack of power and finishing ability can cost her against resilient fighters like Dern.
Hill should look towards Dern's fight with Yan Xiaonan and follow a similar gameplan – stay on the outside and pop a mixture of leg kicks and jabs. Dern intently walks towards her opponent in search of the takedown, so Hill should use her superior foot movement to evade her opponent. If she finds herself grappling, she should try and convert to a clinch situation where she can thrives with her knees and elbows. If Hill can keep this fight standing, she should do enough in the striking to get a clear win.
Final Mackenzie Dern-Angela Hill Prediction & Pick
This fight is a prototypical clash of styles as the grappler in Dern will try to submit the strike in Hill. However, it's important to note that Mackenzie Dern's takedown percentage is just 11% through her fights, meaning she can definitely be stopped given the right defense. What's even more impressive is that one takedown is all Dern usually needs to get the submission on her opponent. Angela Hill will come into this fight focused and pissed off about her recent rankings. Look for her to display some new wrinkles in her grappling and out-strike Dern on the feet. Let's take the underdog in this one.
Final Mackenzie Dern-Angela Hill Prediction & Pick: Angela Hill (+142)
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