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Missouri aims to stay unbeaten when it hosts Vanderbilt at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Week 4. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Vanderbilt-Missouri prediction and pick.
The Tigers rallied for a 27-21 win over an impressive Boston College team in Week 3, with Eli Drinkwitz's squad sitting at 3-0 on the season entering their first SEC contest. Can they score yet another victory in Columbia?
Meanwhile, the Commodores – who started the season 2-0 with wins over Virginia Tech and Alcorn State – are coming off a disappointing 36-32 loss at Georgia State. Vanderbilt held a 32-29 lead with a little over a minute remaining in the game before allowing the winning touchdown with 15 seconds left.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Vanderbilt-Missouri Odds
Vanderbilt: +20.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +810
Missouri: -20.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -1450
Over: 52.5 (-110)
Under: 52.5 (-110)
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
Time: 4:15 PM ET/ 1:15 PM PT
TV: SEC Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Vanderbilt Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Commodores need to go back to what worked in game one against Virginia Tech.
Vanderbilt played a clean game with no turnovers, and the defense stepped up to make clutch plays when it mattered most. The team took a step backward in both areas at Georgia State, as a fumble on the opening drive led to a field goal for the Panthers, and the Commodores allowed their opponent to drive 75 yards in just under a minute for the game-winning score.
Mistakes and inconsistency aren't going to keep you within striking distance against Missouri. The Tigers are just too talented on both sides of the ball, so Clark Lea's squad has to focus on limiting both turnovers and game-changing plays.
Luckily, Vanderbilt does have something every team needs in a road showdown against a top-10 team: An absolute baller at quarterback. Diego Pavia is off to a great start in completing 40 of 62 pass attempts for 543 yards and four touchdowns, and he has added 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the ground game. Keep in mind he was magnificent for New Mexico State a season ago, posting 2,973 passing yards, 928 rushing yards, and 33 total touchdowns.
Remember those clutch plays we talked about? Pavia is one of the best in that category, he's the reason the Commodores can cover the spread in this spot.
Why Missouri Could Cover The Spread/Win
Guess what? Big plays are also the key for Missouri.
However, the difference is that the Tigers may be better equipped to make more of them on both sides of the ball. The offense, led by quarterback Brady Cook (69-of-97, 720 YDs, 6 total TDs), ranks top 25 nationally in yards per game (482.3) and scoring (38.7 PPG).
Nate Noel (45 CARs, 242 YDs, 2 TDs) and Marcus Carroll (30 CARs, 154 YDs, 1 TD) have formed a solid rushing attack to replace all-world running back Cody Schrader, which was one of the top questions for Missouri entering the season.
The big-play ability of wide receivers Theo Wease Jr. (21 RECs, 232 YDs), Luther Burden III (13 RECs, 181 YDs, 2 TDs), and Mookie Cooper (7 RECs, 112 YDs) speaks for itself. All three players have made plays of 39 or more yards this season, and they could be a huge chore for Vanderbilt to defend in this game.
But it may be the Missouri defense that stands tall here. Just when you thought there were too many NFL-bound players for Drinkwitz and company to replace, the Tigers came out and held their first two opponents scoreless before allowing just 298 total yards against a talented Boston College squad.
If Missouri winds up making the College Football Playoff, it's going to be a combination of playmakers on offense and an aggressive approach on defense.
The Commodores might see the best of both in this particular game.
Final Vanderbilt-Missouri Prediction & Pick
The half-point is key in this spot, especially since the number is under three touchdowns.
That little extra would make it more intriguing to side with Vanderbilt. Keep in mind that Missouri has been favored by 13.5 or more points in each of the last six games between these two teams, and the Tigers have covered the number just once in that stretch.
But can we really trust the Commodores in this spot after the Georgia State debacle? That was a deflating loss that halted Vanderbilt's momentum after the opening week upset of Virginia Tech and a dominating performance against Alcorn State. Also, the Commodores are 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games, while Missouri is 8-2 after the special 2023 season.
The Tigers are a legitimate SEC title contender, and they might showcase that in a convincing win.
Final Vanderbilt-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Missouri -20.5 (-110)
