The Aaron Rodgers trade to the New York Jets has finally been agreed upon, and the Green Bay Packers made out about as well as they could've imagined. For well over a month, it's been clear that the Packers had little choice but to trade Rodgers to the Jets. By holding out for better draft compensation, Green Bay improved its first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and will likely acquire New York's 2024 first-round pick.
The Packers are swapping the No. 15 overall pick in the 2023 draft for the Jets' No. 13 overall pick in the Aaron Rodgers trade, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Green Bay will also receive the No. 42 overall pick in the 2023 draft, a 2023 sixth-round pick and a conditional 2024 second-round selection. In addition to getting their new starting quarterback, the Jets acquired a fifth-round pick in this year's draft.
The Jets are legitimate Super Bowl contenders with the four-time NFL MVP under center. It's a virtual guarantee that none of the players the Packers will select with their new draft picks will have better careers than Rodgers. And yet, Green Bay arguably got the better end of the deal.
Let's take a look at why the Packers won the Aaron Rodgers trade.
New York Jets caved and traded a first-round pick to Green Bay Packers
Technically, the Jets didn't give up a first-round pick for Rodgers just yet, but it's a pretty safe bet that New York's 2024 first-rounder is going to Green Bay. The conditional second-round pick in the deal becomes a first-rounder if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps in the 2023 season. In the last nine seasons, Rodgers has played at least 16 games eight times. Even if Rodgers only makes 12 starts next season, he's likely to hit the 65% threshold.
The Packers have been trying to pry a first-round pick from the Jets for weeks. Yes, it would've been a disaster for the Jets if they didn't land Rodgers. Still, the Packers had little leverage in trade talks. Green Bay General Manager Brian Gutekunst made it clear that the team was moving on from Rodgers. The Jets were the only team making serious offers for Rodgers. The Packers were not going to start Jordan Love and keep Rodgers on the roster while paying him close to $60 million.
If the Jets offered a 2024 second-rounder instead of a conditional pick, the Packers would've had no choice but to accept the trade before the start of the season. Instead, Green Bay held firm and New York ended up bidding against itself.
Green Bay Packers weren't winning a Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers
It was time for the Packers and Rodgers to part ways. The pairing went more than a decade without reaching the Super Bowl. Even when Rodgers was playing his best and winning MVP awards, Green Bay couldn't win the NFC. Now that the quarterback is out of his prime and approaching his 40th birthday, the Packers weren't going to contend for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Green Bay had an 8-9 record with Rodgers under center last year. The 2023 season probably wasn't going to be much better with Rodgers as the Packers' quarterback. Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari has admitted that the team is rebuilding. The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears should be improved. The Minnesota Vikings will contend for another NFC North championship.
The Packers have to see if Jordan Love can be their future franchise quarterback. The trade with the Jets will allow Green Bay to give Love a better chance to succeed. The Packers weren't winning another Super Bowl with Rodgers, so they might as well not win a title in 2023 with Love at quarterback and a few more draft picks.
Aaron Rodgers might not be a top-tier quarterback anymore
Rodgers is no longer the best quarterback in football. That title clearly belongs to Patrick Mahomes. But the scary truth for the Jets is that Rodgers is potentially no longer a top-five quarterback. He certainly wasn't among the five best signal callers in 2022, and it wasn't particularly close.
Much of Rodgers' dip in production can be attributed to Green Bay's weapons. The Packers' offense was completely different without Davante Adams. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs were not ready to be game-changing wide receivers. But Rodgers can't completely blame his pedestrian 91.1 passer rating on his receiving corps. Rodgers missed plenty of throws that he made look easy during his back-to-back MVP campaigns.
With Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall on the roster, Rodgers should put up better numbers in 2023. Is he going to be an MVP candidate in his 19th season? That remains to be seen.
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