The Noche UFC Prelims are set to continue in the Flyweight (125) Division as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for the next bout. Mexico's own Jesus Aguilar will take on new prospect Luis Gurule of factoryX Muay Thai. Check the UFC odds for our Aguilar-Gurule prediction and pick.
Jesus Aguilar (11-3) comes into this bout with a 3-2 record inside the UFC since 2023. He recently rode a three-fight winning streak that included two finishes (1 KO, 1 SUB), but dropped his latest appearance against Rafael Estevam. He'll look to mount another winning run as the betting underdog here. Aguilar stands 5-foot-4 with a 62.5-inch reach.
Luis Gurule (10-1) is searching for his first UFC win following a debut loss to Ode Osbourne. It was a massive test facing a ranked prospect like Osbourne, but the Contender Series alumni will be poised to get back to another winning streak. Gurule stands 5-foot-5 with a 64-inch reach.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC Odds: Jesus Aguilar-Luis Gurule Odds
Jesus Aguilar: +190
Luis Gurule: -230
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
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Why Jesus Aguilar Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Rafael Estevam – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Jesus Aguilar has opened his first five UFC appearances with a 3-2 record, very respectable considering he's been in there with the likes of Tatsuro Taira. Aguilar has always been known to be an extremely scrappy fighter and no matter the betting odds, he's always good for putting up significant resistence. Two of his three UFC wins have come in the underdog spot and this fight will be no different.
Aguilar will certainly have the advantage in experience over Gurule and his ability to remain dangerous in compromised positions remains a threat during all three rounds. Aguilar also has sneaky striking power given his size, but his dense build offers serious pop to his punches when he's able to land cleanly.
To win this fight, Aguilar will be looking to trap his opponent along the fence and gas him out across three rounds. On the clinch break, Aguilar has be known to be dangerous with his elbows as his 45% striking accuracy suggests he's waiting for the open shots.
Why Luis Gurule Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ode Osbourne – TKO (punches, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Luis Gurule comes into his second UFC appearance following a valiant effort against Ode Osbourne, but it was clearly too much to handle for his first fight with the promotion. Gurule comes in as an aggressive knockout artist, immediately taking the center of the octagon and stalking his prey in hopes of the finish. Still, four of his last five wins have come by way of decision, suggesting he can also sustain three rounds of consistent activity.
Gurule also possesses an extremely solid chin, giving him the confidence to close the distance and march into the pocket with his head up and arms swinging. His movement around the cage will be key as he'll need to cut off the quick lateral transitions from Aguilar.
Nevertheless, Gurule is confident in most matchups and doesn't see many fighter where he's not the more powerful side. His 5.34 significant strikes per minute are landing at a 48% clip up to this point and he's feeling as confident as ever with his hands. Don't be surprised if Gurule is looking to make this a quick night in the office and tries to keep this fight exclusively on the feet.
Final Jesus Aguilar-Luis Gurule Prediction & Pick
We should have another interesting matchup as these two flyweights face off. With both sides coming into this one following a loss, each fighter will be determined to impose their will and fighting style on one another. Jesus Aguilar is a live underdog in this fight as he typically flourishes in these spots. If he's able to avoid the power shots of Gurule with his movement, he should be able to dance around the pocket and land strikes en route to a decision.
However, Gurule can manage to stay aggressive through all three rounds as his power doesn't waver much towards the end of a fight. If he's hitting the mark early on, it could spell for a quick finish as Aguilar fails to land his takedowns.
Still, Aguilar is consistently undervalued in the betting lines and his two wins as an underdog suggest he has a great shot here. For our final prediction, let's roll with Jesus Aguilar to stack another win and bounce back from his recent loss.
Final Jesus Aguilar-Luis Gurule Prediction & Pick: Jesus Aguilar (+190)
