Super Bowl LX is nearly upon us, with the New England Patriots designated the home team against the Seattle Seahawks. It is a rematch from 11 years ago when the Patriots defeated the Seahawks in wild fashion, 28-24. That was the famous Marshawn Lynch-Malcolm Butler game.
With 20 seconds left on the Patriots' 1-yard line, the Seahawks opted to pass the ball instead of handing it to Lynch. Russell Wilson's pass was picked off by Butler, sealing the win and Tom Brady's fourth ring.
Though this matchup will prompt Seattle fans looking for revenge, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald downplayed that angle on Wednesday.
There are several interesting storylines as Super Bowl Sunday approaches. The emergence of second-year quarterback Drake Maye to MVP-candidacy is one of them. Not to be outdone, Sam Darnold is in the process of erasing his career narrative. But he'll have to defeat the team that he famously ‘saw ghosts' against as a member of the New York Jets.
So, let's get to the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl LX Odds, Predictions, and Pick.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Odds
New England Patriots +4.5 / -105 / MoneyLine +195
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 / -115 / MoneyLine -238
Over 45.5 / -115
Under 45.5 / -105
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Patriots vs. Seahawks Key Injuries
Seahawks: Seattle listed 14 players on their initial injury report on Wednesday. However, all 14 registered at least a limited tag, if not full participation. Darnold is still listed with an oblique issue, but he played near-flawless football vs. the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship. Left tackle Charles Cross was limited, as he deals with a foot injury. But the only real concern is for safety, Nick Emmanwori.
Emmanwori suffered an ankle injury late in Wednesday's practice and did not return to the field.
On a related note, Seattle will be without their red zone running back, Zach Charbonnet. He suffered a season-ending ankle injury vs. the 49ers in the Divisional Round.
Patriots: Only five players are even listed on New England's initial injury report. Maye (shoulder) was a full participant, as was defensive tackle Joshua Farmer (hamstring). Offensive tackle Thayer Munford and linebacker Harold Landry were limited. But the only real concern is that of linebacker Robert Spillane. After leading the team in tackles this season, he did not practice and missed the AFC Championship win vs. the Denver Broncos.
Super Bowl LX Betting Trends
Ever since Tom Brady led the Patriots to the second-largest upset in Super Bowl history a quarter-century ago, New England has been favored in the Super Bowl every time since (eight appearances). That is quite remarkable when you think about it.
Not this time, as they are 4.5-point dogs.
The Patriots tied for the best record in the NFL against the spread in 2025. They went 12-5 ATS. Interestingly, the team they are tied with is the team they will line up against on Sunday night. The Seahawks were also 12-5 ATS in the regular season, but have also covered in both playoff games.
Over the last seven instances that a team was favored by at least four points in the Super Bowl, they failed to cover the spread. Additionally, the underdog has covered in each of the last five Super Bowls, winning outright in four of them. Since 2007, underdogs are 13-5 ATS and 11-7 straight up.
Since 2001, favorites have covered only seven of 24 Super Bowls.
So, being the favorite in the big game is not all it's cracked up to be, at least recently.
Keys to Patriots vs. Seahawks
JSN vs Christian Gonzalez
The matchup that everyone is talking about is Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Christian Gonzalez. JSN emerged as one of the best receivers in football this season. Gonzalez is clearly one of the best cover corners in the league. But there is a decent chance we don't even see this matchup very often.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel might take a page from Bill Belichick's playbook. He may opt to double Smith-Njigba with Carlton Davis III and a safety over the top, placing Gonzalez on Seattle's second receiver. Plus, Seattle moves JSN all over the formation. That makes it very difficult for Gonzalez to shadow him, particularly knowing the CB has mostly played on one side of the field this season.
But when they do line up against each other, whoever wins this matchup will put their team at an advantage.
Seattle D Line vs. Will Campbell
The Seahawks do not possess a single player who finished with double-digit sacks. But they have five players with at least six, and they are almost all household names. Demarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, and Uchenna Nwosu each can win their one-on-one matchups.
But it is Patriots' rookie left tackle Will Campbell that will be under the microscope.
Despite a solid start to his career, the No. 4 overall pick in 2025 has struggled mightily in the playoffs. The Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos combined to sack Maye 15 times. That led to six fumbles, five of which came via strip sack from Campbell's side.
If the Patriots are going to have any success downfield, something they excelled at in 2025, Campbell must hold up.
Patriots defensive tackles vs. Seahawks interior O-Line
You know the old football adage: games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage.
This game will be no different. The Patriots' defense struggled most of the regular season, trying to get pressure and sacks. But in the postseason, they have been downright nasty.
Christian Barmore and Milton Williams are officially designated as defensive ends. But New England runs a ton of stunts up front to create matchup advantages. Seattle has a rookie left guard, a second-year center, and a third-year right guard, all of whom have struggled at times this year. If Barmore, Williams, K'Lavon Chaisson, and company can consistently apply pressure on Darnold, mistakes can happen from the veteran quarterback.
Seattle was one of the most turnover-prone teams in the NFL this year. Darnold threw 14 interceptions, the third most in the NFL. Right now, if you were to bet that he throws an interception in the Super Bowl, you would have to lay -137. That equates to a 56% chance.
This is undeniably one of the keys for New England to pull off the upset.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Predictions and Pick
I expect both punters to be very busy on Sunday night.
Seattle's ability on defense to rush four and play coverage will give Maye and the Patriots problems. They have shut down opposing run games all season with just the front four. Lawrence has turned into one of the best run-defenders at the edge in the league. I don't believe Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson will find much success.
That will allow the Seahawks' secondary to clamp down and rally for the tackle.
On the flip side, the Patriots' defense is far better than people realize. Seattle has been facing subpar defenses for well over a month. That includes the Rams, who, since Thanksgiving, were nearly inept against the pass. New England will slow down Seattle's attack, for the most part.
Therefore, I love the Under (45.5, -105) here. In particular, I really like the first half Under.
Concerning the game, all of the recent historical data suggest the Patriots are the play. But as game day approaches, I am having a difficult time seeing many paths for the Patriots to victory. They could very well fall two scores behind, which would really spell trouble.
I believe the Seahawks will pull away in the second half, winning and covering, 23-14.
