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The Ottawa Senators will head south to begin their Stanley Cup Playoffs return as they face the Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 1 of the First Round. The Battle of Ontario is back as we continue our Stanley Cup Playoffs odds series with a Senators-Maple Leafs Game 1 prediction and pick.
The Battle of Ontario will be fun, and the fans are ready. This will be the first playoff meeting between the Senators and the Maple Leafs since 2004. That was back when the Maple Leafs regularly won playoff series. Since then, they have only won one somehow.
The Senators dominated the season series, winning all three games. First, Linus Ullmark stopped every shot he faced in a 3-0 win over the Leafs on November 12, 2024, at the Scotiabank Arena. The Sens defeated the Leafs 2-1 on January 25, 2025, at the Canadian Tire Centre. Finally, the Senators again upended the Maple Leafs 4-2 at the Scotiabank Arena.
Will we see yet another playoff failure by the Maple Leafs? Or, will the Leafs actually get it done this time around, starting with a victory in Game 1?
Here are the Senators-Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Odds: Senators-Maple Leafs Game 1 Odds
Ottawa Senators: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: +130
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+164)
Moneyline: -156
Over: 5.5 (-110)
Under: 5.5 (-110)
How To Watch Senators vs. Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Playoffs
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN 2
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Senators Will Cover the Spread/Win
This is the first playoff appearance for the Senators as they have not been in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2017. Ultimately, they finished 44-30-7, which was good enough for fourth place in the Atlantic Division. While they have been good this season, scoring has been an issue, as the Senators ranked just 18th in goals. Still, some players can make a difference.
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Tim Stutzle was the leader, tallying 23 goals and 53 assists. Likewise, Drake Batherson added 24 goals and 41 assists. Brady Tkachuk was excellent when he was on the ice, generating 29 goals and 26 assists. However, injuries plagued him toward the end of the season, and he must overcome them. Jake Sanderson could be an integral player in this series after scoring 11 goals and 44 assists.
Defense and goaltending are how the Senators swept the season series. Amazingly, Ullmark has been spectacular this season, proving to be the main difference in the net. Ullmark finished the season with a mark of 25-14-3 with a 2.72 goals-against average and a save percentage of .909. Significantly, the defense in front of him was solid, ranking 13th in goals against. This defense completely shut down the “Core 4” this season, getting to loose pucks and making it difficult for Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, or John Tavares to take good shots at the net.
The Senators will cover the spread if their elite scorers can get some good shots and convert their shooting chances. Then, the defense must tighten up and contain the “Core 4” again, not letting the Leafs get any momentum.
Why the Maple Leafs Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Maple Leafs won their division to avoid a first-round showdown with the Florida Panthers or Tampa Bay Lightning. Instead, they will play a team that has had their number all season, holding them to three goals over three games. The offense must do more.
Marner finished the regular season with 27 goals and 75 assists. Meanwhile, Nylander had 45 goals and 39 assists. Matthews finished with 33 goals and 45 assists through 67 games. Likewise, Tavares had 38 goals and 36 assists.
While the “Core 4” is great, the Leafs need secondary scoring. Thus, Matthew Knies must step up. Knies had a great season, tallying 29 goals and 27 assists. Substantially, Knies benefits from playing on the top line with Matthews and Marner. His chemistry with them is impeccable. Now, the Maple Leafs need him more than ever.
Defense and goaltending are also significant storylines. Notably, Morgan Rielly backs up the defense and also quarterbacks the power play. Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz both have shared the net this season. Significantly, Woll went 27-14-1 with a 2.73 goals-against average along with a save percentage of .909, while Stolarz went 21-8-3 with a 2.14 goals-against average and a save percentage of .926.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if the “Core 4” contributes and Knies can find the back of the net. Then, the defense must avoid mental lapses.
Final Senators-Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction & Pick
The Senators have no pressure on them as they are the underdogs. Conversely, the Maple Leafs have all the pressure on them. They need to come out strong and avoid faltering against them. Therefore, they need some production. To get that, they need to get to the loose pucks. Getting to the loose pucks allows them more opportunities to score. Consequently, that has not been the case against the Senators this season. I am rolling with the Sens to cover the spread on the road.
Final Senators-Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction & Pick: Ottawa Senators: +1.5 (-205)
