Subscribe
Follow Us
On Friday, the Nuggets host the Thunder in Game 3, tied at 1-1! The Nuggets stole Game 1 in Oklahoma City, while the Thunder won Game 2 by 43 points. It's time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series with a Thunder-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Thunder were shocked in Game 1, but rallied for a giant blowout in Game 2 to tie the series at 1-1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like the NBA MVP, but the key for the Thunder is Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren because he can't do everything alone. Their defense has been elite, and it needs to stay that way against Jokic and the rest of the roster.
The Nuggets didn't skip a beat after their blowout wins against the Clippers in Game 7 and Game 1 against the Thunder, but Game 2 was a different story, and they lost by 43. Nikola Jokic had 42 points and 22 rebounds in Game 1, but fouled out in Game 2. Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon had massive games in Game 1, but were non-factors in Game 2. They need to bounce back at home.
Here are the odds of the Thunder-Nuggets NBA Playoffs, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Thunder-Nuggets Game 3 Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: -4.5 (-112)
Moneyline: -200
Denver Nuggets: +4.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +168
Over: 233.5 (-108)
Under: 233.5 (-112)
How To Watch Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 8:30 pm ET/5:30 pm PT
TV: TNT/TruTV/Max
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Thunder Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Thunder's offense was great in the first round and picked up where they left off in both games. In the postseason, they are first in scoring at 124.7 points per game, fourth in field goal percentage at 46.7%, and 11th in three-point percentage at 33.9%.
Four Thunder players average over double digits in scoring, with Gilgeous-Alexander being the biggest star and the engine that drives the entire unit. As the MVP favorite, he averages 29.7 points per game and contributes 6.7 assists. Jalen Williams is second in scoring at 21 points per game, and then Holmgren rounds out the top three with 16.8 points.
The Thunder have playmakers on offense, and they should be able to score on a Nuggets defense that has not been impressive in the playoffs. Gilgeous-Alexander is a matchup nightmare for the Nuggets, and the Thunder have a matchup advantage everywhere except for Holmgren down low, who needs to hold his own.
Article Continues Below
The Thunder's defense has been outstanding this year, but they have not been as good in the postseason. They are seventh in scoring defense at 104.8 points per game, first in field goal defense at 41.4%, and fifth in three-point defense at 32.4%.
The Thunder's frontcourt has been a tremendous strength, but they have a massive challenge against Jokic. Hartenstein is the rebounding leader, averaging 8.7 rebounds per game, while Holmgren is the block leader, averaging 2.8 per game. Oklahoma City's on-ball defense has also been excellent, with eight different defenders averaging at least one steal, and Caruso is the leader, averaging 2.3 per game.
This defense can shut down any offense in the NBA. Jokic is the biggest challenge because the Thunder don't have a big man who can guard him consistently. However, their perimeter defense is much better than the Nuggets and if they are good enough against Jokic, it won't matter.
The Nuggets' defense has been inconsistent and has struggled recently in the postseason. They are 13th in points allowed, at 114 points per game, 14th in field goal defense, 48.7%, and 11th in three-point defense, 37.1%, from behind the arc.
Jokic leads in rebounds at 12.3 per game and is second in the postseason only to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jokic is also the best shot blocker on the team, averaging one block per game. Three players are averaging at least one steal for their on-ball defense, and Jokic also dominates there, averaging two steals per game.
Jokic does everything for the Nuggets and is the biggest key on defense, just as much as on offense, and that hasn't changed in the postseason. Jokic does so much despite not looking the part. They need more from this defense to help him, especially behind Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Christian Braun.
Why the Nuggets Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Nuggets' offense was great this season and has translated well into the postseason. They are fifth in scoring at 109 points per game, fifth in field goal percentage at 46.6%, and third in three-point percentage at 38.2%.
Five Nuggets have scored over double digits in the postseason. Nikola Jokic leads the team in points per game and assists with 25.2 points and 9.2 assists per game, making them go as a team. Jamal Murray is second in scoring, averaging 21.7 points per game. Aaron Gordon rounds out the top three, averaging 18.2 points.
The Nuggets had one of the best offenses in the NBA all season, but they have faced more formidable defenses in the postseason with the Clippers and now the Thunder. Despite how good the Thunder's defense is, Denver's perimeter offense needs to improve, starting with Murray and Gordon.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
This is a game about trust, and the Thunder have more to like. They won by 43 in their last match and should win and cover in this game, even though it will be closer than Game 2.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Thunder -4.5 (-112)
