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The Oklahoma City Thunder will attempt to even the series as they face the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Sunday at Ball Arena. The atmosphere in Denver will be wild as we continue our NBA Playoffs odds series with a Thunder-Nuggets Game 4 prediction and pick.
The Nuggets defeated the Thunder 113-104 in overtime to take Game 3 and a 2-1 series lead. Now, they look to bounce back and avoid a 3-1 hole before the series shifts back to Oklahoma City.
Here are the Thunder-Nuggets Game 4 NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Thunder-Nuggets Game 4 Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: -6 (-115)
Moneyline: -255
Denver Nuggets: +6 (-105)
Moneyline: +210
Over: 227.5 (-110)
Under: 227.5 (-110)
How To Watch Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30 PM PT
TV: ABC
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Why the Thunder Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Thunder could not keep the momentum going, and they paid dearly for it. Now, the top team in the Western Conference is in danger of seeing its season on life support if it cannot get things figured out quickly. Remember, the Thunder were in this exact spot last season and fell to the Dallas Mavericks in the same round. They cannot afford to see this series go the same way.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled in Game 3 and just could not get things going, scoring 18 points while shooting 7 for 22 from the floor, including 1 for 6 from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Jalen Williams scored 32 points while shooting 11 for 21, including 3 for 7 from the three-point line. Chet Holmgren added 18 points while shooting just 7 for 19 from the floor. Likewise, Isaiah Hartenstein had 10 points while shooting 5 for 10 from the floor.
The Thunder shot just 38.5 percent from the field, including 25.7 percent from the three-point line. Additionally, they shot poorly from the free-throw line, hitting just 68.2 percent of their shots from the charity stripe. While the Thunder won the board battle by five, it was enough to give them a significant advantage. Additionally, their seven steals and six blocked shots did not matter in the end, as they struggled in the extra session.
The Thunder will cover the spread if Gilgeous-Alexander can respond to his bad performance and find a way to light the Nuggets up. Then, the defense must continue to play tight while setting up the offense on the other end for good shooting chances.
Why the Nuggets Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Nuggets shut down Gilgeous-Alexander, not allowing the superstar to do much. Because of that, it helped the Nuggets creep back into the game. When they forced overtime, the Nuggets' role players took over, winning the game and giving themselves the series lead.
Jamal Murray led the starters with 27 points while shooting 9 for 19. Likewise, Aaron Gordon had 22 points while shooting 7 for 11. Michael Porter Jr. added 21 points while shooting 7 for 10. Finally, Nikola Jokic had 20 points and 16 rebounds while shooting 8 for 25. Surprisingly, the Nuggets only played three reserves, and the extra playing time for the starters might wear on them as the series goes along, so that is something to keep an eye on.
The Nuggets shot 45.9 percent from the field, including 40 percent from beyond the arc. Furthermore, they shot 79.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Nuggets lost the board battle, but it did not hurt them. Instead, their nine steals and seven blocked shots did help them. Denver clamped down on defense and did not let Oklahoma City run away with it like they did in Game 2. It allowed the Nuggets to stay in the contest and forge their comeback.
The Nuggets will cover the spread if their starters can continue to shoot the ball well and take good shots. Then, they need to contain Gilegous-Alexander and force him to take bad shots or defer to a teammate.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Game 4 Prediction & Pick
The Thunder were in this exact situation a year ago against the Mavericks and won Game 4 before succumbing in the next two games. Conversely, the Nuggets have not played a Game 4 at home in over a decade. This will be the first time a Jokic-led offense has a 2-1 lead with Game 4 at home.
The Thunder dominated the Nuggets in Game 2 after falling in Game 1. Ultimately, I think something similar will happen here. This team is way too talented to fall apart now. While their play in Game 3 was alarming, it's critical to remember that the game went into overtime. Plus, the Thunder have more depth than the Nuggets, giving them the advantage. I think they will maximize this and cover the spread on the road.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Game 4 Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder: -6 (-115)
