The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East title for the third consecutive season following the Miami Dolphins loss to the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day. The Bills are 12-3 with two weeks remaining in the regular season and have won six straight games. The offense finally began to come to life again in Week 16. Despite playing in frigid, below-zero wind chills in Chicago, Josh Allen showed exactly why he is an MVP-level talent in this league.
His arm strength and ability to make plays out of nothing were on display as the Bills pulled away from the Bears, 35-13. That came on the heels of scoring 32 points in the snow against the Dolphins the week prior. It appears that after a mid-season swoon, the Bills offense is back to clicking on all cylinders.
They are currently atop the conference, via their tie-breaking win over the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this season. But home field advantage and the only first round bye is far from a certainty. The remaining schedule for the Bills is very difficult. Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals can both catch and surpass the Bills in the AFC standings.
That got us thinking. What is the worst case scenario for Bills fans as the 2023 NFL playoffs approach?
Bills Lose to Bengals in Week 17
Buffalo travels to Cincinnati to face the Bengals on Monday Night Football this week. This is arguably the biggest game of the season for the Bills. If they win, they will get to play the New England Patriots at home in Week 18 with a chance to clinch home-field advantage.
However, if they lose to the Bengals, they could be in a world of hurt. Cincinnati is currently 11-4 and just one game back of Buffalo. That means if they win Monday night, they will each be 12-4 and the Bengals would own the tie-breaker. That moves the Bills off the one-seed. But it would be much worse than that.
The Chiefs finish the season with games against the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. The Broncos are arguably the worst team in the NFL. They just fired their coach Nathaniel Hackett and are looking toward the future. The Raiders are talented but underwhelming once again. It is highly likely that a loss to Cincinnati would drop Buffalo all the way to the third seed in the AFC standings.
That is quite literally the worst spot to be in for Buffalo.
Buffalo Travels to Cincinnati, Kansas City
If the Bills finish as the third seed, they will matchup against the sixth seed in the Wild Card round. That is looking more and more like it will be the Los Angeles Chargers. That's a team that no one is going to want to play.
Since Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have returned to the lineup, they have started to look very formidable. The Chargers have won four of their last five, and quietly the defense is playing extremely well.
But even if the Bills survive that game at home, the road will be about to become very difficult, literally.
The Bills would then have to travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals, again. In this scenario, it's the place they would have just lost a few weeks prior. The Bengals have already shown that they step up their game against elite competition. Joe Burrow, in just his second year as a starter, took the Bengals within a few minutes of winning the Super Bowl.
That obviously would be a very difficult game to win. If the Bills get their revenge and win that game, guess where they are likely headed for the AFC Championship? Yup, Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
The two teams have split their last four meetings. All four games have taken place in Kansas City. In fact, Patrick Mahomes has never played a game in Buffalo in his career. We all remember how the Bills season ended last year, with arguably the most entertaining NFL game of all-time playing out in Arrowhead.
Buffalo failed to put pressure on Mahomes last year. They addressed that problem by acquiring Von Miller this season. Sadly, Miller suffered a knee injury and is now out for the rest of the year. So, they will be right back where they started.
That would be one heck of a path to travel just to reach a Super Bowl. Whereas, if the Bills can win out, they will not even play on Super Wild Card Weekend. The Bengals and Chiefs would probably have to play each other, leaving the Bills to face whoever is left. That is a massive difference.
The #1 seed in the AFC has never been more important than it is this year.