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The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. It's a holiday battle at Acrisure Stadium as we share our NFL Christmas odds series and make a Chiefs-Steelers prediction and pick.
Chiefs-Steelers Last Game – Matchup History
The Chiefs demolished the Steelers 42-21 in their last game, a 2022 wildcard round win at Arrowhead Stadium. Additionally, the Chiefs destroyed the Steelers in the regular season before that postseason game. Mike Tomlin is 0-3 against Patrick Mahomes. Significantly, this will be the first meeting in Pittsburgh since 2018.
Overall Series: The Steelers lead 23-14
Here are the Chiefs-Steelers NFL Christmas odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Christmas Odds: Chiefs-Steelers Odds
Kansas City Chiefs: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -134
Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +114
Over: 43.5 (-110)
Under: 43.5 (-110)
How to Watch Chiefs vs. Steelers
Time: 1 PM ET/10 AM PT
TV: Netflix
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans on Saturday to put themselves in the driver's seat when it comes to clinching the top seed. However, the win did not come without consequences, as the star defensive lineman Chris Jones sustained a calf injury, which may keep him out for this game and beyond. The defense has been one of the major reasons why the Chiefs are 13-1 this season. Therefore, losing Jones for any time will hinder them, especially against a tough opponent like the Steelers.
Patrick Mahomes seemed fine despite a report that said he would be week-to-week with an ankle injury. He went 28 for 41 with 260 yards passing with one touchdown while also rushing for 33 yards and a score. While it has not been the best season for Mahomes, he remains stellar when it matters, ensuring that the Chiefs get enough points to win games.
And the Chiefs have definitely won a lot of games. Significantly, they have 11 one-score victories this season. As impressive as it sounds, the Chiefs have ground and found ways to close games, escaping game-endangering situations. The Chiefs have won games even without their best offensive players doing well. Ultimately, they won despite just 82 rushing yards combined from Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt on Saturday.
The defense remains elite, even without Jones. However, they will have a Pittsburgh offense that is inconsistent yet dangerous. The Chiefs must contain an elusive quarterback who can still make plays.
The Chiefs will cover the spread if Mahomes continues to command the offense and makes big plays. Then, they must contain the Pittsburgh rushing attack.
Why The Steelers Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Steelers have thrived all season. However, they suffered their second consecutive loss on Saturday, losing to the Baltimore Ravens. Overall, it was another bad game, and Mike Tomlin blamed the run game for the defeat. They allowed Derrick Henry to go off for 162 yards on 24 attempts. Yet, they could not match it on offense, with Jaylen Warren rushing 12 times for 48 yards and Najee Harris rushing nine times for 42 yards.
Getting the run game going will be the first step for the Steelers. Unfortunately, not many teams have been able to run the ball against the Chiefs this season. But not having to face Jones this week might help them. Additionally, the Steelers need Russell Wilson to have a good game. While he did not play badly last week, he must be extra careful when holding onto the football.
Of course, the defense has been the heart of this team, which is why the Steelers are in first place in the AFC North. Their subpar performance against the Ravens raised questions of how well they can hold up going into the postseason. Regardless, they will be at home after two consecutive road games and looking to bounce back.
The Steelers will cover the spread if they can establish the running game and chew clock to keep Mahomes off the field. Then, they must contain Hunt and Pacheco, while also forcing Mahomes into making some bad decisions.
Final Chiefs-Steelers Prediction & Pick
The Chiefs are 7-8 against the spread, while the Steelers are 10-5 against the odds. Moreover, the Chiefs are 4-3 against the spread on the road, while the Steelers are 5-1 against the odds at home. The Chiefs are 4-6 against the spread when facing the conference, while the Steelers are 7-3 against the odds when facing the AFC.
The Chiefs have had a lot of luck this week. However, that luck will end on Christmas Day as they face a Steelers squad that is back home and looking to put themselves in a position to clinch the AFC North.
Final Chiefs-Steelers Prediction & Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.5 (-110)
