The UCLA Bruins are looking to bounce back from a devastating loss in the Sun Bowl and will have many fresh faces for the 2023 campaign. We are here to continue our college football odds series by making a UCLA over/under win total prediction.
The Bruins are coming off a season where they went 9-4 with a 6-3 conference record. Significantly, they went 6-2 at the Rose Bowl while going 3-1 away from home. Things started well for the Bruins as they started the year with two blowout wins and were 6-0 at one point. However, the tide began to turn as they lost 45-30 to Oregon and proceeded to fall into a lull, going 3-4 over the final seven games. The Bruins lost three of their last four, including a Sun Bowl defeat against Pittsburgh. The Bruins went 2-3 in one-score games. Moreover, they lost two by a combined five points, including a 3-point loss to crosstown-rival USC.
The Bruins will have a new starting quarterback, as Dorian Thompson-Robinson has graduated and moved onto the NFL, where the Cleveland Browns took him in the fifth round. Additionally, they no longer have the services of Zach Charbonnet, their star running back, who is now with the Seattle Seahawks, who took him in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Bruins also lost Jake Bobo and will look to replace his production of 57 catches for 817 yards and seven touchdowns. Significantly, no other Bruin averaged more than 40 yards.
UCLA will have a new quarterback, running back, and wide receivers. Moreover, they have upgraded their defense. Let's take a look at what's new and whether they can maintain consistency.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 8.5 wins: +104
Under 8.5 wins: -128
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Why UCLA Can Win 8.5 Games
The first thing to know about UCLA is that Chip Kelly still presides. Ultimately, as long as he is around, the Bruins will thrive. His coaching style did not work in the NFL. Conversely, it is exceptional in college football. Kelly helped mentor the stars that have since moved onto the NFL and will not have a shot at new talent.
It will be a quarterback battle in the valley as three quarterbacks will compete for the chance to start. Initially, Collin Schlee will get the first crack at the job as he transferred from Kent State. Ethan Garbers will also get a shot. Likewise, true freshman Dante Moore is a contender and could play a significant role for the Bruins. Schlee tossed 2,109 yards with 13 touchdowns in 2022. However, he only completed 59 percent of his passes. There will be pressure to succeed. Regardless, Kelly will help them get ready.
T.J. Harden will get the first chance at running back. Substantially, he will look to improve on his 2022 campaign, where he rushed for 325 yards, and two touchdowns with a yards-per-carry clip of 7.4. Carson Steele transfers in from Ball State and will look to make an impact. Moreover, he would like to continue his success from last season, where he rushed for 1,556 yards and 14 touchdowns.
UCLA will win nine games or more because of superior coaching. Therefore, it will help them develop a program where they continue to have one of the most explosive offenses in college football.
Why UCLA Can Not Win 8.5 Games
The Bruins lacked defense. Unfortunately, it was the reason they lost the Sun Bowl. It was the reason they lost to USC. However, they have brought in D'Anton Lynn as their new defensive coordinator. Lynn was the safeties coach for the Baltimore Ravens last season and helped a defense that allowed only 18.5 points per game. Now, he must fix a defense that allowed 29 points per game.
The good news is that the Bruins do not have to play Washington or Oregon. Unfortunately, the bad news is that they have five road games, and there are some difficulties with the schedule. The Bruins must travel to Utah for their first conference game. Also, they have a trip to Arizona to play the Wildcats. The Bruins also must go all the way up to Oregon State. Furthermore, they have their usual tilt with USC, this time at the Coliseum. The Bruins have a road game against Stanford, which they should win. However, Kelly must keep them focused. The defense must improve for the Bruins to have any chance of improving upon last season's mark.
The Bruins will not win nine games because they will run into some roadblocks in the conference. Also, their offense might struggle initially as the new players adjust. This could be a team that finishes 8-5 because of growing pains.
Final UCLA Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Bruins lost two major superstars. Therefore, expect some growing pains while the Bruins still compete for a bowl spot, but some up short of nine wins.
Final UCLA Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 wins: -128
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