The Dallas Cowboys host a home game on Thanksgiving every year, and those games almost always deliver. Hopefully, this game against the Washington Commanders follows suit. On paper, it doesn't look like that will be the case. The Dallas Cowboys are 7-3 and have a point differential of +127. The Commanders, on the other hand, are 4-7, have a point differential of -69 which would be the fifth-worst in the NFL entering Week 12, and have lost four of their last five games, with their only win coming against the New England Patriots.
Both teams need wins in a bad way. The Cowboys have to keep winning to keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles, and have to get some help along the way to catch up with them. The Commanders have to keep winning to play for a possible wild card spot that they are 1.5 games out of. There is plenty to play for in this game, which should make for a great game. It should also make for some fruitful ground for bold predictions.
Sam Howell is sacked at least ten times
Sam Howell has a penchant for taking sacks. He likes to hold onto the ball and wait for big plays to develop. While that can work from time-to-time, it has also led to an exorbitant amount of sacks taken on the season. Howell has taken 51 sacks in 11 games this season. This is despite the fact that the Commanders rank 15th in ESPN's pass block win rate metric. Washington's offensive line is doing their job. Sam Howell has also largely played well this season; he leads the NFL in passing yards on the season! But the sacks have been a major problem.
It won't get much better this week. The Cowboys rank first in pass rush win rate on the season. Micah Parsons ranks first among individual edge rushers in pass rush win rate. The Cowboys have the sixth-most sacks in the NFL on the season. Howell has taken at least three sacks in all but one game this season. He had a game against the Buffalo Bills where he got sacked nine times, so it is within the realm of possibility he gets sacked ten times in a game. If anybody is going to get there, it is going to be the Dallas Cowboys.
Both teams score at least 30 points
Vegas projects there to be 48.5 points in this game. That may not be enough. The Cowboys should have no issue getting to 30 points. The Commanders 29th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed defensively. They rank 30th in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed. The Cowboys, on the other hand, rank fourth in the NFL in EPA per play on offense and second in the league in EPA per dropback. Dak Prescott also ranks third in the NFL in EPA + Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) composite score this season. This is looking like a hammer meets nail situation.
But the Commanders know how to keep up in situations like this. The Commanders have given up at least 30 points in a game five times this season. They've scored at least 30 points in three of those five games. They only rank 20th in the NFL in EPA per play on offense, but they rank 12th in the league in yards per game and 17th in points per game. They know how to move the ball down the field. If they can get some scores early before the Cowboys pull away and the Commanders have to play catch up, they can absolutely get to 30 points.
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