With the 2023 NFL season rapidly approaching, it's time to delve into some bold predictions for each team. In this piece, the focus shifts to the Atlanta Falcons, who, on paper at least, appear to be much improved coming into this season. However, we'll still have to wait until September 10 to get our first glimpse when they face off against the Carolina Panthers. What kind of season could this potentially be for the Falcons, though? This will mark Arthur Smith's third season as head coach, during which the Falcons finished 7-10 in each of the past two seasons. Could this be the year they finally sneak into the playoffs or secure 10 or more wins? And what about the loaded offensive talent roster? Let's explore these bold predictions.
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4. Bijan Robinson will win Rookie of the Year
This is probably the least audacious prediction on this list, as it seems evident even from his initial draft selection that Bijan Robinson is poised to be an absolute standout for the Falcons and their offense. Admittedly, his pick at No. 8 overall was a bit surprising, especially considering the current devaluation of running backs and the Falcons' greater need on their defensive line. Nevertheless, this was an excellent pick by the Dirty Birds, who now have the potential for an explosive offense with Robinson's inclusion.
Robinson's versatility allows Smith to employ him not only as a runner but also as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Robinson showcased his versatility during his college career at Texas, amassing over 41 total touchdowns, with eight of those coming through the air. Smith has a loves a strong running game, as demonstrated by his tenure as the offensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans, where he significantly impacted Derrick Henry's career. If Smith utilizes Robinson as most anticipate, there's a substantial likelihood that he'll claim the Rookie of the Year title. Currently, Robinson stands as the odds-on favorite for the award at +300, according to FanDuel.
3. Desmond Ridder will yield mixed results
Despite the potential firepower of this year's offense, featuring talents like Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, the most significant question mark remains Desmond Ridder's performance. Given that this is a quarterback-driven league, Ridder plays a pivotal role in the Falcons' progression in their third year under the current regime.
Observing Ridder's progress during training camp, it's mostly been positive. Coaches, including Smith, have noted his increased maturity and advancement entering his second season in the league. Likewise, his teammates echo similar sentiments (per The Athletic). Nonetheless, Ridder's limited experience poses an issue. He started only four games last season, throwing for fewer than a thousand yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Ridder's ceiling is at best moderate, while his floor is quite low this season. It's uncertain whether he'll be the driving force behind the Falcons winning numerous games, but he might, at times, contribute to their losses. Fortunately, he's surrounded by strong weapons, particularly in the backfield, which could assist him.
2. The Falcons will exhibit a significantly improved defense
One of the Falcons' most longstanding issues, dating back to their Super Bowl mishap, has been maintaining leads. Last year, they held a 4-8 record in close games. Granted, some of this stemmed from their inability to score due to a lackluster passing game. However, their defense was woeful, ranking 30th in Defense DVOA, giving up the sixth-highest yardage and the tenth-highest points.
To address this, Atlanta made strategic acquisitions, signing notable players such as safety Jessie Bates, defensive tackle David Onyemata, defensive end Calais Campbell, edge rusher Bud Dupree, linebacker Kaden Elliss, and cornerback Jeff Okudah. Simply glancing at these names suggests that the Falcons should boast a considerably improved defensive unit. To be honest, Atlanta's defense can only trend upwards.
1. The Falcons will sneak into the playoffs
Without the expanded 14-team playoff structure, this prediction might have been that the Falcons miss the playoffs once again. However, under the fairly new playoff format, the Falcons can become a playoff team this season. During Smith's tenure, the Falcons have demonstrated an ability to win games, succeeding with a roster assembled on a limited budget due to salary cap constraints. This season, those constraints have alleviated a bit, allowing Atlanta to make meaningful acquisitions, particularly on defense, while building most of their offense through the draft in recent seasons.
Last season, both the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens secured playoff berths with 9-8 records. If the Falcons can't reach at least 9-8 this season, Smith's tenure in Atlanta might be in jeopardy. Notably, the NFC isn't as fiercely competitive as the talent-rich AFC. Moreover, the Falcons might be in the most winnable division in the NFL, the NFC South, where every team will have a new starting quarterback this year. They are positioned to either clinch the division or, at worst, secure a second-place finish. Overall, while the Falcons might still be a year away from being strong contenders, but the 14-team playoff structure could be their saving grace this season should they fall short of winning the South division.