No club in the Divisional Round is a bigger underdog than the Jacksonville Jaguars. That's no shocker, of course, since the Jags will square off against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Jaguars will gladly take that tag and run with it. However, that doesn't mean they don't have things to work on. With that laid out, let's look at some of the issues the Jaguars have when they face the Chiefs in the Divisional Round.
Keep in mind that the Jaguars are on a six-game winning streak. That's on the line as they face the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Despite that six-game run, Jacksonville's status as a dark horse is justified. Recall that its regular season record of 9-8 is the worst among the remaining playoff teams.
In their last matchup against Kansas City, the Jaguars also lost, 27-17. That was back in November when Jacksonville struggled to score as they fell into a 20-0 hole early on. Their offense struggled in a big way, punting six times and missing a field goal on their first seven possessions. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had nearly 500 total yards of offense despite turning the ball over three times. It was much more lopsided than the final score indicated.
That said, here are some of the issues the Jaguars will have when they face the Chiefs.
4. Jaguars Special Teams
The Jaguars special teams had a difficult start in the first half of their Wild Card Round game against the Los Angeles Chargers. A fumble on a punt by Chris Claybrooks led to three points for the Chargers. Another punt almost hit Claybrooks but was instead picked up by Tevaughn Campbell for a 4-yard return. That set up the Jaguars' first touchdown.
Punter Logan Cooke had his own struggles with three first-half punts that were not cleanly hit. Cooke also took over kickoff duties as Riley Patterson's kicks were not reaching the desired depth.
However, Patterson did successfully make the game-winning 36-yard field goal at the end of the game. He has also made 17 of his last 18 field goal attempts since missing two in that aforementioned loss to the Chiefs.
In all, the Jaguars special teams had a bit of a struggle in the Wild Card Round. They certainly have to be at their best here against the Chiefs.
3. Can the O-Line stop Chris Jones?
The Jaguars offensive line has effectively protected Trevor Lawrence this season. In fact, they have allowed just 27 sacks and even lead the league in games without a sack.
For this week, however, they face a tough challenge in stopping Chris Jones and the Chiefs' strong defensive front. Jones had a standout season in 2022. He earned Pro Bowl and First-Team All-Pro honors with 15.5 sacks, 44 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, and four passes defensed. Even when he doesn't sack the quarterback, Jones creates pressure for his teammates.
In the previous meeting between these teams, Jones recorded 1.5 sacks, two tackles, and one tackle for loss. If the Jaguars can limit Jones' impact, they will greatly aid Lawrence and the offense in moving the ball. Otherwise, they'll fall behind again, and this time, there's no coming back.
2. Jaguars Pass Defense
In the Jaguars' last game against Kansas City, the Chiefs effectively exploited Jacksonville's poor pass defense. Take note that the Jaguars have the 28th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. They allow an average of 239 passing yards per game. They also rank 26th in sacks.
Recall that when the Chiefs beat them in November, Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns without being sacked. Plainly speaking, the Chiefs possess a significant advantage here. Mahomes leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns. We aren't confident that Jacksonville's struggling secondary can stop him.
Additionally, the defense is particularly vulnerable to tight ends. It has given up 1,087 receiving yards and 13.1 yards per reception to tight ends this year. This week, they'll face a difficult task in trying to contain Travis Kelce, who is likely to have a big game against the Jags.
1. Those Jaguars Turnovers
The Jaguars' tenacity was on display in their historic comeback victory last week. However, head coach Doug Pederson isn't relishing in the fact they had so many turnovers.
ASANTE SAMUEL GETS A THIRD INTERCEPTION IN THE FIRST HALF 🤯
It’s been a rough half for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguarspic.twitter.com/JIdQY4OpGH
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) January 15, 2023
“Yes, you worry about it,” Pederson said earlier this week. “We were very fortunate the other night. That doesn’t happen, five giveaways and come back and win a football game, it just does not happen.”
Trevor Lawrence made history by becoming the first quarterback to throw three interceptions in the first quarter of a playoff game. Six other quarterbacks, including Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, have thrown two in a playoff game. He also threw a fourth interception in the second quarter.
This was not a consistent issue for the Jaguars during the season. In the first 13 games, they had just 15 giveaways. That was one of the lowest averages in the NFL. However, in the Jaguars' last five games, they turned the ball over 12 times. Weirdly enough, they still won all those matches.
If they continue this trend against the Chiefs, it could mean the end of the Jaguars' season. Even when the Jaguars had a positive turnover margin of three against the Chiefs in Week 10, Kansas City still won 27-17. The margin for error will be small in the Divisional Round, and the Jaguars cannot afford to be careless with the ball.
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