The time has finally come for the UFC Vegas 91 Main Event and we're bringing you a betting prediction and pick for the headlining bout in the Flyweight (125) Division. No. 5-ranked Matheus Nicolau of Brazil will face off against No. 8-ranked Alex Perez of California in a high-level Main Event to determine a new contender. Check out our UFC odds series for our Nicolau-Perez prediction and pick.

Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) has quietly risen up the ranks with a 7-2 UFC record since 2015. Upon leaving the UFC and returning again in 2021, Nicolau notched four-straight victories over hungry opposition. He was stopped by Brandon Royval in his last fight and he'll be looking to avenge the loss and continue his chase for the belt. Nicolau stands 5'6″ with a 66-inch reach.

Alex Perez (24-8) will be fighting in his third UFC Main Event with a 6-4 record since 2017. He's lost his last three fights against Deiveson Figueiredo, Alexandre Pantoja, and Muhammad Mokaev while being extremely unlucky in finding a fight or making weigh on the scales. He hopes to head into this main event with no roadblocks ahead of him. Perez stands 5'6″ with a 65.5-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Vegas 91 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC Vegas 91 Odds: Matheus Nicolau-Alex Perez Odds

Matheus Nicolau: -190

Alex Perez: +165

Over 4.5 rounds: +105

Under 4.5 rounds: -135

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Why Matheus Nicolau Will Win

Matheus Nicolau has looked like a completely different version of himself since returning to the UFC in 2021 and it's clear he made the most of his time away by honing his skills and maximizing his training camps. He came up short against Brandon Royval, but the mismatch he had physically and the momentum behind Royval is nothing to become discouraged about. Nicolau has some of the craziest power in the division and he'll be looking to finish this fight early. He's a great athletic match opposite of Perez and he'll be able to match his pace throughout this fight. If Nicolau can be first in the exchanges and have the quicker hands, he should have an advantage from striking range during this one.

Matheus Nicolau will also have the stern grappling advantage here and Perez has suffered five of his losses by way of submission. Nicolau does his best work when scrambling through the transitions and catching his opponents in bad spots, so expect him to welcome any grappling as he tries to force Perez into one of his submission set-ups.

Why Alex Perez Will Win

Alex Perez hasn't seen much activity over the last three years due to unfortunate events and injuries to his opponents, his own injuries, and issues with making weight. Still, Perez is eager to get back into action as he's had to face two champions in Figueiredo and Pantoja over his last two fights and a possible future champion in Muhammad Mokaev. He'll be getting a chance at a fighter with a similar skill set to his and should find success in the striking. Perez also has more experience against better competition and this won't be his first time fighting in a five-round main event environment.

Alex Perez will have to come into this fight 100% focused and ready for whatever Nicolau throws at him. He holds the advantage in having seen this situation before, but he'll have to keep his composure and take what he sees from Nicolau. Alex Perez is extremely effective at negating his opponent's striking action and if he's able to stuff the takedowns of Nicolau, he should have a visible advantage when standing and striking on the feet. Look for Alex Perez to start this fight slow as he tries to get a feel for the rhythm and timing of his opponent.

Final Matheus Nicolau-Alex Perez Prediction & Pick

The UFC matchmakers knew what they were doing with this fight and we should see a furious flurry of action for as long as it lasts. Both men are very good athletes and won't be willing to give an inch in terms of the grappling and striking range.

Matheus Nicolau is making another run at the belt and he's looking to do so with his all-around smothering game. He seems to be everywhere whether it's the striking or grappling, so expect him to show his best skills in his first career main event.

Alex Perez has been in this spot before and he's got a ton of the same tools as his opponent. He's had trouble making it to fight night over the last few years, so we're hoping he comes into this bout fully healthy and ready for a scrap.

Ultimately, we have to side with Matheus Nicolau to get the job done in this Main Event. It'll be his frist test against a former title challenger and his cardio has the legs to make it in a five-round fight. Both men are very tough to put away, so I expect this fight to see this distance as we see the judges make a tough decision on this one.

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Final Matheus Nicolau-Alex Perez Prediction & Pick: Matheus Nicolau (-190); OVER 4.5 Rounds (+105)