The Tampa Bay Rays will finish their three-game series with the Houston Astros on Sunday at Minute Maid Park. It's a battle between two playoff hopefuls as we share our MLB odds series and make a Rays-Astros prediction and pick.
Rays-Astros Projected Starters
Shawn Armstrong/Tyler Alexander vs. Spencer Arrigheti
Shawn Armstrong will open on Sunday, and Tyler Alexander will work in bulk relief.
Last Start: Alexander worked 2 1/3 innings in bulk relief on Tuesday while allowing one earned run on one hit and notching three strikeouts.
2024 Road Splits: Alexander has been efficient on the road, going 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA on five appearances.
Spencer Arrigheti (4-9) with a 5.58 ERA
Last Start: Arrigheti was efficient in his last outing, going six innings, allowing three earned runs on four hits, striking out eight, and walking two.
2024 Home Splits: Arrigheti has been good at home, going 3-3 with a 4.47 ERA over nine outings.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Astros Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +140
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -166
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How to Watch Rays vs. Astros
Time: 2:11 PM ET/11:11 AM PT
TV: None
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays have struggled to keep pace with the rest of the league this season. Unfortunately, a slow start hindered them, which is not a good thing when you are in a loaded division. But the Rays still are making moves and doing their best to stay competitive. Furthermore, Tampa Bay even traded for Christopher Morel in the surprise move of the week. Whether this translates to more offense is another story.
Jose Siri has been good for the Rays, leading them in home runs. Now, he hopes to pack more punch as he attempts to remain a power threat, especially in this ballpark. The lineup looks a lot different after the Rays traded Randy Arozarena away to the Seattle Mariners. Who will step up in this offense? Yandy is still around and leading the Rays in hits. Expect him to be a major part of the offense going forward as the Rays attempt to make a desperate push toward the playoffs that seems to be escaping their grasp on a daily basis.
Remember that the Rays invented the opener. Therefore, it's not surprising to see them still implementing the formula. That will again be the case here as they start the game with Armstrong and Alexander. These two represent a bullpen that is 19th in team ERA. Pete Fairbanks has remained steady as the closer, going 2-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 20 saves in 22 chances.
The Rays will cover the spread if they can generate some scoring early in the game to give themselves some wiggle room. Then, they need their pitching to avoid making critical mistakes against a talented lineup.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros have done the unthinkable. After starting out terribly, the Astros are back in first place in the AL West and expect to contend for the title once again. Their offense has picked things up, and their pitching has improved. Of course, some old, reliable faces continue to dominate.
Jose Altuve may not be as young as he once was. But he is still hitting over .300 and is on pace for at least 25 home runs and 90 RBIs. Yordan Alvarez is always a danger to clobber the ball into the right-field seats. Likewise, expect him to finish with 30 home runs and 90 RBIs. Kyle Tucker is out with an injury. Therefore, the Astros need to replace his production. Alex Bregman can supply that and continues to be a force in the lineup.
Arrigheti is not the most reliable starting pitcher. But he has shown signs of life. When he finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is now ninth in baseball in team ERA. Josh Hader has been solid as the closer, 4-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 22 saves in 23 chances.
The Astros will cover the spread if their vaunted lineup can batter the baseball and drive some runners hope. Then, they need Arrigheti to hit his zone and make some good pitches.
Final Rays-Astros Prediction & Pick
It is tough to trust a bullpen game against a lineup like this. Curiously, these teams are very similar when it comes to the run line as the Rays came into Saturday with a 53-56 mark while the Astros were 56-53. Tampa Bay was 29-21 against the run line on the road coming into Saturday, while Houston was 27-29 at home. The Rays covered the spread on Friday. But we feel like the Astros will wake up on Sunday, especially with a day game and some talented bats at the plate.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Rays-Astros Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros: -1.5 (+128)
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