Last season was the first time the New York Yankees fell short of 90 wins since 2016, excluding the shortened 60-game COVID season in 2020. The Bombers’ front office and ownership group made it clear the team's performance in 2023 was completely unacceptable. Hal Steinbrenner signaled his willingness to spend, giving Brian Cashman the green light to make blockbuster deals and acquire the players he felt the team needed in order to compete going forward.
Now, let's talk about the Yankees MLB win total in 2024.
The total is set at 90.5 wins on FanDuel, with the over priced at -120 and under at -106. The Yankees' odds to make the postseason are -230 as of this writing, and the Bombers currently have the best odds to win the American League East at +175.
Yankees dealt from position of strength to add offensive superstar
The Yankees' 82 wins last year was a disaster for a team that expects to compete for rings every season, and there was a sense of urgency in the Bronx this offseason. With the Bombers needing to add nine wins to last season's total in order for over bettors to cash, let's take a look at the moves Cashman made this offseason to determine whether it is worth it to wager on the over.
Although the Yankees missed out on prized Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cashman made a major splash offensively when he acquired lefty slugger Juan Soto in a blockbuster trade with the San Diego Padres just after the conclusion of Winter Meetings. The deal wasn't completely painless for New York, as the team was forced to part ways with versatile right-handed pitcher Michael King as well as Drew Thorpe, their top pitching prospect.
King was certainly an important piece of the 2023 team, and things likely would have been a lot worse than they already were without him. However, King isn't an irreplaceable, either. He was an elite reliever who the Yankees turned into a serviceable starter, but never quite reached star status. Players such as Luis Gil, Will Warren and Chase Hampton could fill his role in the Bronx.
Health is paramount
In 2023, nearly everything that could go wrong for the Yankees in terms of health went wrong. Aaron Judge missed significant time due to a freak injury, the outfield was a revolving cycle of players, Giancarlo Stanton missed a major chunk of the schedule and Jose Trevino went down with injury, too.
On top of all this, Anthony Rizzo suffered a concussion that went undiagnosed and had him seeing four balls come out of the pitcher's hand every time he was at the plate. Rizzo was then shut down early in the second half of the season once his injury was finally diagnosed.
Soto’s addition should help improve the team's overall health picture, as the Dominican star is one of the most consistently available players in the league. Durability is an underrated skill, as the best ability is availability and Soto excels at keeping himself in game shape.
Soto isn't built like Judge or Stanton, with a massive 6’6” or 6’7” frame that puts stress on his joints and tendons. Instead, he's a much more compact player, leading to better durability. While the lefty slugger isn't quite as good a defensive player as Judge, he also doesn't try to make the crazy, highlight-reel plays that No. 99 does. This makes him less susceptible to outfield injuries suffered on defense, such as the broken rib Judge suffered on a diving catch and the infamous toe injury that happened after Judge ran through an outfield wall in Los Angeles last season.
Even with all of the health woes the Yankees dealt with throughout 2023, they still managed to finish the season with 82 wins. That would put them well within reasonable striking distance of their projected 2024 total of 90.5, and it's not unreasonable to imagine that even in the same circumstances a few lucky breaks going in their favor could have added a couple wins to their total.
That level of bad luck doesn't often strike two years in a row. It's reasonable to assume the Yankees will have a better year on the injury front in 2024. The front office also went out of its way to make the team younger and more athletic, with players such as Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells expected to play a bigger role, outfielder Jasson Dominguez hopefully returning this summer and the aforementioned Soto joining the lineup.
With a combination of younger, healthier players having a bigger role and the veterans arriving to spring training in Florida early to work on their fitness, it's clear the team is committed to doing everything within their power to increase the likelihood of a healthy season. A healthier and more talented roster should have little problem exceeding the 90-win mark.
What about Gerrit Cole?
Midway through spring training, the Yankees received potentially concerning injury news about Gerritt Cole and he was shut down for the remainder of the spring. However, it appears he avoided the worst outcome and will not need Tommy John surgery. All indications are that Cole is currently on track to return in the early summer, potentially as soon as June 1st.
Frontline starting pitchers are essential assets in the playoffs, but they have less of an impact during the regular season due to only pitching every five days. New York's improved lineup combined with an average pitcher filling in for Cole should prevent a major drop-off in the early part of the season.
As long as Cole is back by midseason, his early absence shouldn't have bettors too worried if they back the over for this wager.
Healthy Yanks could make run at 100 wins
It would be shocking for many of the Yankees players to struggle the way they did last season. The aforementioned Rizzo is an easy candidate for positive regression to the mean because his struggles were due in large part to playing with a concussion. DJ Lemahieu has been working hard this offseason and should hopefully have his athleticism back, and if Stanton can stay healthy he's still one of the most feared power hitters in the game.
Gleyber Torres and Soto are both going into their walk years, and they'll be extra motivated to put up big numbers to improve their leverage heading into contract negotiations. Really, the only player who is at risk of negative regression is Judge, and even minor regression would still have him as one of the best players in the game. He was on track for 60 homers last season, and if he is healthy even with a slight drop in performance he could still hit 45 or 50 moonshots.
If everybody stays relatively healthy and plays to the back of their baseball cards, the Yankees should easily win 91 games and could realistically make a run at 100 or more victories and the American League East crown.
The Pick: New York Yankees over 90.5 wins (-120)
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