The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry writes a new chapter on Saturday as Georgia visits Auburn. Auburn does not yet have a win in SEC play, while Georgia is now 2-1 in the conference. Regardless of the records, this is a rivalry game, and there are bold predictions to be made.
Georgia rebounded in a big way from a difficult loss. After losing in Week 5 to Alabama at home, Georgia faced Kentucky. The Bulldogs dominated the Wildcats. Kentucky scored touchdowns on each of its first two drives before slowing down some. Regardless, Georgia held a 21-7 lead heading into the halftime break. Kentucky opened the second half with the ball, but a fumble gave Georgia the ball back, and they turned that into a touchdown. Kentucky did score late in the game, but Georgia won 35-14 to move to 4-1 on the season.
Meanwhile, Auburn is now 3-2 on the season. After a big opening win over Baylor on the road, Auburn took games over Ball State and South Alabama. The Tigers hit the road to open SEC play, falling by seven to Oklahoma. The team had a chance to win in Week 5. While facing Texas A&M, the Auburn defense was solid. The Aggies scored a touchdown on their first drive of the game, but Auburn held Texas A&M to just 13 first-half points, trailing 13-3 at the intermission. In the fourth quarter, Auburn forced an interception and then scored on the next play to make it 13-10. Still, the offense could not score again, as Auburn fell 16-10 to Texas A&M. The team is now coming off an open week in Week 6.
Third downs decide the game
Georgia has been solid on third down this year. The team is 33rd in the nation in third-down conversion on offense this season. The Bulldogs have finished games under 50% in third-down conversion three times this year. The first was against Marshall, going 6-16, but going three of three on fourth downs. Another was the overtime win over Tennessee, when Georgia was 8-17 on third down, but 2-2 on fourth. In the lone loss of the year, Georgia was just 2-8 on third down and could not recover, missing the only fourth down chance they took.
Meanwhile, Auburn has been great on third down on defense this season. Auburn is tenth in the nation in opponent third-down conversions, allowing a conversion rate of just 26.76 percent. They are 96th against fourth down conversion, but have faced very few attempts this year.
While the Georgia offense and Auburn defense create a strength against strength match-up, the opposite is true for the Auburn offense and Georgia defense. Auburn is currently 108th in the nation on third-down conversions. The offensive struggles were clear against Texas A&M, as Auburn went 0-13 on third down and then 0-2 on fourth down. Meanwhile, the Tigers were just 3-15 on third down agaisnt Oklahoma. Still, Georgia is 84th in the nation on third-down defense this year.
When each team has struggled on third down, they have struggled in the game. Whoever is more dominant in converting their third-down chances will come away with a victory.
Gunner Stockton impresses again
Gunner Stockton started the season with some Heisman hype, having an impressive opening stretch of the season. That included the comeback victory over Tennessee, where he passed for 304 yards and two touchdowns while also running one in on the ground. He has not been at the same level in the past two games. Against Alabama, the quarterback was just 13-20 for 130 yards and one score. Then, against Kentucky, he was just 15-23 for 196 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Although he did run in two touchdowns in that game.
The strength of the Auburn defense has been against the run. Auburn is eighth in the nation in opponent yards per rush while sitting fifth in opponent rushing yards per game. The passing defense has been great at getting pressure this year, sitting seventh in the nation in sack rate. Regardless, Stockton does move well, and the offensive line has held opponents without a sack three times this year.
Auburn will give up chunk plays in the air. The team is 84th in the nation in opponent yards per pass this year. Stockton is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt already this season. That has led the Bulldogs to rank 30th in the nation in yards per attempt in the passing game. While Auburn may be able to slow down the Bulldogs' running game, Stockton will rebound in this game, passing for over 250 yards.
Home field does not play a factor
Auburn has played just two games at home this year, facing Ball State and South Alabama. Neither of those is a big game. This is a big game, and under the lights at Jordan-Hare Stadium. That will already create a solid atmosphere for the home crowd. Meanwhile, Auburn will be officially retiring Cam Newton's jersey during the game. This will add emotion and hype to a crowd at home in a rivalry game.
While all of that plays into account for homefield advantage, it will not make a difference in this game. Georgia has already shown what it can do in a hostile environment. While it was a slow start on the road against Tennessee, being down 21-7 in the first quarter, the Bulldogs made the comeback. It was aided by a missed field goal by Tennessee, but it was nevertheless a comeback on the road against a great offense.
Tennessee has a great offense. Auburn does not. Quarterback Jackson Arnold has had some solid games, but the Auburn offense is 116th in the nation in passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Georgia run defense is the strength of that unit. Georgia has now won eight straight games in this rivalry, and 17 of the last 20. All three losses for Georgia in the last 20 games were in Auburn. Regardless, all three also included a top-10 Auburn team. This Auburn team is not a top 10 team.
It could be another slow start for the Bulldogs, but unlike the Tennessee game, Georgia will not need to make a comeback as the team comes away with a road victory.
