It was an overall productive NBA All-Star break for the New York Knicks. Not only did Quentin Grimes impress with his ability to make difficult three-point shots during the Rising Stars game, Julius Randle was also a prominent part of the festivities, having participated in the Three-Point Contest and playing 20 minutes for Team LeBron during the All-Star game.
While Jalen Brunson missed out on the All-Star game despite being one of the best guards in the Eastern Conference this season, the Knicks' representatives gave a good account of themselves in Utah nonetheless.
But now the stretch run awaits.
At present, the Knicks have a 33-27 record, good enough for sixth in the Eastern Conference. They will have 22 more games to cement themselves as an outright playoff team, as they reside in the 5/6/7 bubble alongside the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat. Out of those three teams, however, they look like the squad most equipped to continue playing at a high level.
With all that said, here are a few bold predictions for the Knicks as they try to avoid falling into the play-in tournament.
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3. Quentin Grimes continues to start for the rest of the season
The Knicks only swung one trade prior to the deadline after months of rumors linking them to the likes of Zach LaVine and OG Anunoby. They dealt away unused bench wing Cam Reddish and a first-round pick for Josh Hart to give them another impact player who is able to contribute defensively and on the boards and is a heady cutter.
As an added bonus, after being reluctant to shoot in the Portland Trail Blazers, Hart seems to have found his shooting groove in the Big Apple as well, making nine triples in his first three games as a Knick. To put things in perspective, Hart made nine threes in his last 15 games as a member of the Blazers.
After adding Josh Hart, it seems like it was only a matter of time before head coach Tom Thibodeau inserted the six-year forward out of Villanova into the starting the lineup. After all, Hart has plenty of chemistry with Jalen Brunson, having played with him back in their collegiate days.
But Quentin Grimes has earned his starting spot, and the Knicks will be hesitant to shake things up too much. Thus, Grimes will continue to be their starting shooting guard for at least the final 22 games of the regular season.
There's no denying that Josh Hart, at the moment, is a much better and multi-dimensional player than Grimes. But sometimes what matters more is who closes games, not who starts them. Grimes has seen his minutes drop upon Hart's arrival anyway. But if Grimes' Rising Stars game showing is any indication, he's not just about to take the reduction in his role lightly.
2. Knicks finish the season in the Top 10 for both offensive and defensive rating
One of the hallmarks of a true contending team is its ability to perform well on both ends of the court. Are the Knicks on the level of a true title contender? Perhaps not yet, as they might need another All-NBA talent or two to elevate the team's championship odds within the next few seasons or so.
But for a stretch, the Knicks were among the best teams in the league, placing in both the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating. While their offense has remained exceptional, ranking seventh in the league at present, their defense, however, has fallen off a bit.
Part of the Knicks' drop-off on the defensive end came due to Mitchell Robinson's injury. Some of the Knicks' best lineups in terms of net rating include Robinson; in fact, their most-utilized five-man unit of Robinson, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Quentin Grimes, and RJ Barrett, in 392 minutes together (eighth most minutes) has an elite net rating of +8.1.
Moreover, the Knicks are 7.5 points better when Robinson is on the court, per PBP Stats. Their defense, in particular, allows 3.4 points less per 100 possessions with the 24-year old anchoring the paint.
Mitchell Robinson may be out for a few more games after the All-Star break; but once he returns, the Knicks should return to their previous defensive heights, which would place them in the top 10 for defensive rating once more come season's end.
1. Knicks snag the fifth seed
If the Knicks manage to tighten up defensively without suffering too much of an offensive drop-off, then they should very well be on track to usurp in-city rivals Nets for the fifth spot in the East. The Nets are going through a bit of a transitional period, and with the number of pieces they need to integrate, it's not going to be a surprise if they endure a bit of game-to-game inconsistency.
Meanwhile, it's reasonable to expect the Heat, last year's one-seed, to turn it up a notch during the stretch run. They of all teams do not want to go through the play-in dance, given their injury problems.
Expect the Knicks' continuity (a huge advantage over the Nets) and youthful verve (a huge advantage over the Heat) to win out in the end.
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