The final week of the NFL regular season is among us. The Dallas Cowboys (12-4) visit the Washington Commanders (7-8-1) on Sunday with playoff implications on the line! Action kicks off at 4:25 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Cowboys-Commanders prediction and pick.
Dallas has won six of their last seven games and has clinched a playoff berth. They can win the NFC East and clinch the number one seed in the NFC with a win and an Eagles loss. The Cowboys are 10-6 against the spread while 56% of their games have gone over. Washington has lost three consecutive games and is eliminated from playoff contention. The Commanders are 7-8-1 against the spread while 67% of their games have gone under. The teams last met in week four in Dallas when the Cowboys took a 25-10 victory.
Here are the Cowboys-Commanders NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Cowboys-Commanders Odds
Dallas Cowboys: -7 (-110)
Washington Commanders: +7 (-110)
Over: 40.5 (-108)
Under: 40.5 (-112)
How To Watch Cowboys vs. Commanders
TV: FOX
Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET/ 10:00 a.m. PT
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Cowboys Could Cover The Spread
Dallas has locked up a playoff berth but still has something to play for. The Cowboys win the NFC East if they win and the Eagles lose, and they lock up the No. 1 seed if that happens and the 49ers lose. While both Philly and San Fran are heavy home favorites this week, all three teams will play at the same time. The speculation is that Dallas will be playing their starters and will therefore have a strong chance of covering against a free-falling Commanders team. Dallas is a strong all-around team that ranks second in scoring (28.8 PPG) and sixth in points allowed (19.8 PPG). Dallas is notably expected to get running back Tony Pollard back after he missed last week due to an injury.
Pollard's return comes at the perfect time as Dallas' rushing attack is their best avenue to covering against the Commanders. The Cowboys have been one of the best-rushing teams all season as they rank eighth in rushing yards per game (140 YPG) and second in rushing touchdowns per game (1.5 TDs). The Commanders were strong against the rush for a majority of the season, but have been gashed in recent weeks. In their last there games, Washington gave up 146 yards to the Browns, 153 yards to the 49ers, and 128 yards to the Giants. Both Pollard (988 yards on 5.3 YPC) and Ezekiel Elliot (866 yards on 3.9 YPC) have been stellar this season – forming one of the best one-two combos in the league. After an 87-yard performance against the Titans last week, look for the Cowboys to establish the run early and often heading into the playoffs.
Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread
The Commanders have completed free-fallen to end the season, as they haven't won a game since Thanksgiving Weekend. To the surprise of Ron Rivera, Washington has been eliminated from the playoffs. Despite that, these are still professional athletes with a lot on the table. Washington likely won't rest anyone too important and will therefore have a good chance to cover as home underdogs. The Commanders' defense has faltered in recent weeks but remains a dangerous unit with defensive lineman Chase Young healthy. They are especially strong against the pass, ranking fifth in passing yards allowed (196 YPG) and eighth in completion percentage (62%). The Commanders' defense really steps up in big moments as well, running first in three-down conversation rate (33%) and seventh in red zone scoring rate (51%).
Offensively, the Commanders will be somewhat unpredictable as rookie Sam Howell will make his first career start. The fifth-round pick out of North Carolina was PFF's No. 2 ranked quarterback coming into the draft but he surprisingly was the sixth QB drafted. The dual-threat QB threw for 3,056 yards and 24 touchdowns in his final season at UNC. He tacked on 828 yards and 11 scores on the ground. Howell will look to bring some life to a previously inept Commander's offense. The Cowboys rank ninth in yards allowed (204 YPG) and have the second-highest sack percentage in the NFL (8.8%). While the matchup is rough for Howell, he has a number of capable weapons on the outside. Terry McLaurin (74 receptions for 1,117 yards and four touchdowns) is a top-tier receiver in the league, while rookie Jahan Dotson (32 receptions for 451 yards and seven touchdowns) has flashed signs of brilliance.
Final Cowboys-Commanders Prediction & Pick
Both defenses have been shaky of late and with Washington starting a rookie quarterback, I expect some points to be scored here with Dallas potentially resting some key players.
Final Cowboys-Commanders Prediction & Pick: Over 40.5 (-108)
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