The NFL Week 5 slate stays in NFC for the Thursday night matchup with the rivals from the South doing battle when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel north to face the Atlanta Falcons. Both these teams are riding high after Week 4 wins, and the victor will get a big leg up in the battle for the division crown. We’ll, of course, pick the winner of that game and all this week’s contests here in the ClutchPoints NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column.
This week’s schedule of games brings us the usual array of burning questions. As we enter October, those questions include, are the Minnesota Vikings really the best team in the NFL with Sam Darnold at quarterback? How many weapons can Patrick Mahomes lose before the wheels fall off in Kansas City? And could the first coach fired come after this week?
Football fans and fantasy managers get an added layer of intrigue this weekend as bye weeks begin. For now, we say so long to the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennessee Titans until Week 6.
What we do get on the NFL Week 5 docket is the aforementioned Thursday game, our first London match of the season at 9:30 am ET on Sunday, six 1 pm ET games, four games in the late Sunday window, a Sunday nighter, and mercifully, just one Monday night affair.
Once again, last week, we had a good time figuring out who the winners will be. However, Vegas is still on fire this season, hitting the mark by a point or two either way with the spreads. Overall, we were 10-6 straight up in Week 4 and 7-9 using the number thanks to the Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers winning but the first two and the New England Patriots not covering the spread.
Heading into the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column, we’ve moved to 35-29 finding the winners this season but a still disappointing 26-38 versus the spread.
With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds.
Previous Weeks: Week 1| Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4
Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Both these teams are coming off wins in Week 4 but Thursday Night Football is a tough game to predict. On a short week, anything can happen, and the home team usually has an advantage. That said, we made a lot of money last season believing in the Buccaneers when not many did, and we’re going to stay with that.
The Falcons have not handled prosperity well in the last few seasons. The team is gone 6-18-1 ATS coming off a win, and while there is a new coach and quarterback in town these days, it’s still worth noting. And while Kirk Cousins has been better in primetime of late, he’s still struggled throughout his career.
Pick: Buccaneers 21-20
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
This is the biggest public bet of the NFL Week 5 slate, with around 84% of the bettors taking the 4-0 Vikings giving the 1-3 Jets less than a field goal. That should make everyone a little nervous. However, while going against the public will often make you money, sometimes a no-brainer is just a no-brainer.
London games don’t follow normal patterns, so the Vikings getting only 2.5 points does make some sense. However, the one unit we know will show up across the pond is Brian Flores’ Vikings defense, and that will be enough to earn the win in Jolly Ol’ England.
Pick: Vikings 16-6
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
People are understandably high on the Ravens coming off their win over the Bills in Week 4, but there are some specific reasons for that as you’ll read below. Outside of Buffalo, the Ravens have played close, one-score games.
In a division matchup with the trick-or-treat Bengals who also often play to the level of the competition, the Ravens will have their work cut out for them. Joe Burrow usually looks better in his own division, especially against Baltimore, so look for this one to be close and maybe even a Cincinnati win.
Pick: Bengals 25-24
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4)
The Panthers aren’t a good football team. After getting the one-week Andy Dalton bump, Carolina came back down to earth in Week 4, losing to the Bengals by 10. That said, in the first few weeks, that would have been Bengals by three touchdowns. The Bears, on the other hand, keep pulling out wins despite continuing to make mistakes.
Ultimately, these are both underwhelming teams, albeit ones heading in opposite directions with their young No. 1 pick QBs. It is the official position of the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column that Caleb Williams shouldn’t be more than a field goal favorite over anyone, including the Panthers, at this point. And, Dalton could even pull the upset.
Pick: Panthers 13-12
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1)
This is a tough game to pick because both teams are such a mess here. The Dolphins are apparently starting Tyler Huntley in Week 5 but who knows if he finishes the game. As for the rest of the Dolphins' offense, while they have more talent, they look rudderless without Tua Tagovailoa.
Just a few days ago, we wrote in this space that, despite the QB issues, we believed in Mike McDaniel. Then the Dolphins lost to the lowly Titans. In the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column, we may be gluttons for punishment, but we’re going to believe in McDaniel and the overall speed on offense one more time in this game. It won’t be pretty, but the Dolphins will win his one.
Pick: Dolphins 12-9
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Houston Texans
The Bills looked bad last week getting stomped by the Ravens, but looking back, it now seems almost inevitable. Buffalo has beaten Baltimore in the past with Matt Milano spying Lamar Jackson and making his life tough. They have also always struggled to control Derrick Henry. With Milano out and Henry in, the Bills never had a chance.
All that said, the Ravens are a unique team specially constructed to beat the Bills. While that will again become a problem in the playoffs, for now, Buffalo is still the team we saw the first two weeks. They are better after getting rid of Stefon Diggs, and they will prove that in person on Sunday.
Pick: Bills 31-28
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
The Jaguars are not a good football team, but are they the worst team in the NFL? If they lose to the Colts on Sunday, possibly with Joe Flacco starting at QB, and drop to 0-5, they definitely are. That said, Trevor Lawrence and company looked better last week, losing by just four to the Texans.
This is another AFC South matchup with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor likely out, this is the Jags’ best chance to get their first win of the season. It’s not going to be fun putting down a wager on the Jaguars this weekend, but in the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column, we think it’s a winner.
Pick: Jaguars 19-15
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3)
Speaking of the Jaguars being possibly the worst team in the NFL, that is the only team that Deshaun Watson and the Browns have beaten this season. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are a team on the come-up on the other sideline, and this should be another win for the youngster and his potent offense.
The biggest danger here is if the Browns end up benching Watson and going with Jameis Winston. The former No. 1 overall pick is dangerous, both to his own teams his times, and opposing defenses. If it’s Watson, though, it’s Commanders by a tud.
Pick: Commanders 23-16
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
The 49ers looked like world-beaters in Week 4, smacking the New England Patriots, but the Pats are bad and the injury issues are still there for the 49ers. On the other side, bettors are down on the Cardinals after liking them last week and having them lay an egg against the Commanders and their rookie quarterback.
This game won’t play out like it did last week for every team. It will be a tough NFC West battle that will end as a field goal game either way. So, in the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column, we’ll take the Cards to cover but the Niners to get the dub.
Pick: 49ers 27-24
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Even with the Davante Adams drama swirling around the franchise, the Raiders came out to play in Week 4, getting the victory over the Browns. And while it was incredibly ugly — both football and weather-wise — in New Jersey, the Broncos quietly won their second game in a row.
While they are both 2-2, the Broncos are seemingly finding ways to win games, while the Raiders have been less than impressive, beating the Browns and Ravens but losing to the Chargers and Panthers, neither of whom is all that good. Ultimately, the Raiders seem like a team that will alternate wins and losses all season, so that’s what happens here.
Pick: Broncos 16-10
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
If both or even either of these teams were anywhere near full strength, this would be an incredible game. However, the injury bug hit both these squads hard early in the season, and it’s been a bit ugly for both.
The Packers seem a little healthier overall, and they are more talented, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, playing on the West Coast is always challenging but don’t be shocked if there are more Cheeseheads in the building than Rams fans.
Pick: Packers 26-18
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
The Giants showed some promising things on offense last week against the Cowboys, but when Malik Nabers went out with a concussion, things fell apart. Also, Brian Daboll obviously doesn’t trust Daniel Jones in a high-pressure red zone spot, and you can’t win games against good teams kicking field goals.
Yes, the Giants more rest but they are traveling across the country to one of the toughest places in the league to play, and they might be playing without Nabers. All that adds up to a big Seahawks win.
Pick: 25-12
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Steelers fans must have felt like they fell into a time machine last week, watching Joe Flacco slice them up like it was 2012 again. The Pittsburgh D is still good, though, and the Cowboys unit is hurting, with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence both likely out.
Giving the offensively challenged Steelers points to cover over Dak Prescott and the Cowboys seems like Vegas is begging you to take America’s Team. And when Vegas begs, we zag in the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column so let’s take the Steelers here.
Pick: Steelers 20-10
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
The Chiefs are undefeated but how many weapons can Patrick Mahomes lose before the offense starts to fall off? Well, we’ll find out on Monday night when the Chiefs take on the (sometimes) high-flying Saints.
While it seems like the Chiefs are doing just enough to get by in the first four games, they are actually 3-1 ATS this season IF you got the Chargers game last week at 6.5 and not 7 like we did here at the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column. So, even without a ton of weapons available, let’s say the Chiefs still win and cover in primetime.
Pick: Chiefs 28-20
Establish the Pass Podcast Week 5 Predictions
Matchup | Blake | Dillon |
TB @ ATL | Falcons | Bucs |
NYJ vs. MIN | Jets | Vikings |
CAR @ CHI | Bears | Bears |
BAL @ CIN | Ravens | Ravens |
MIA @ NE | Patriots | Patriots |
CLE @ WSH | Commanders | Commanders |
IND @ JAX | Jaguars | Jaguars |
BUF @ HOU | Texans | Bills |
LV @ DEN | Broncos | Broncos |
ARI @ SF | 49ers | 49ers |
GB @ LAR | Packers | Packers |
NYG @ SEA | Seahawks | Seahawks |
DAL @ PIT | Steelers | Steelers |
NO @ KC | Chiefs | Chiefs |
Record | 31-33 | 33-31 |