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A Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 6 matchup that pits them against another first-place team is somewhat surprising. Less so because the Detroit Lions (4-1) are currently atop the NFC North and more because the Bucs (3-1) lead the NFC South. But these teams do share some similarities — chiefly, in how they acquired their current quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield was the No. 1 pick of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Cleveland Browns. After some early promise, Mayfield regressed and the Browns dumped him. Ditto Mayfield and his second team, the Carolina Panthers. After a successful late-season cameo with the Los Angeles Rams, Mayfield signed with the Buccaneers this offseason.
So far, Mayfield looks like a rejuvenated player. Lions QB Jared Goff can relate. He was unceremoniously dumped by the Rams in favor of Matthew Stafford, then watched his replacement lead his old squad to a Super Bowl. But for a significant stretch now, Goff has been playing like an upper-tier QB for Dan Campbell. The Lions took a major step forward last season, and opened their 2023 by defeating the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road.
Both feel good stories for certain. But only one of them can prevail on Sunday. So which QB will lead his team to victory? Let's make some predictions for this Lions-Buccaneers game, and let's make 'em bold.
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3. Cade Otton finds the endzone
The Lions currently rank fourth in the NFL in points per game. This offense is a high-powered unit. Tampa Bay is going to need to keep pace, and those targets need to go somewhere. Especially with WR Mike Evans dealing with a hamstring injury that might keep him from taking the field on Sunday.
Right this way TE Cade Otton. No, Otton isn't Travis Kelce, but again, points should be plentiful in this one. And the Lions' defense is probably weakest at the linebacker spot, which should give Otton an opportunity or two once the Bucs enter the red zone. Otton caught his first TD of 2023 in Week 4's win over the New Orleans Saints. Let's get him on the scoreboard again.
2. Lions sacks > Buccaneers sacks
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This game features two of the better offensive lines in the NFL. As evidence: no team has allowed fewer sacks than the Bucs (four), while the Lions (seven) rank fourth in that category. (Tampa Bay has the benefit of having played four games to Detroit's five.)
When the margins are this close, what breaks the tie? Picture this: the Lions' offense kicks into gear and the Bucs find themselves needing to keep pace. That will involve more Mayfield dropbacks, more opportunities for DE Aidan Hutchinson, and more chances that Mayfield has to try to make something out of nothing.
Mayfield feels more likely to slip up and take a sack while trying to play hero ball. Goff works a little faster and gets the ball out on schedule. So in a battle of QB protectors, the Bucs will fall short.
1. Goff outduels Mayfield, Lions win
In this battle of comeback stories, we'll give Goff the upper hand. The reason is, the Lions often win because of how Goff plays. He makes throws when the team needs and they can trust him with the game on the line and the ball in his hand. Detroit wants to win by taking it to opponents on offense, and Goff leads the way.
In contrast, Mayfield, who admittedly has been playing well, is managing the game more than dominating it. In half of his starts this season, Mayfield has thrown for under 200 yards. Tampa Bay doesn't expect to win because of Mayfield, but with him.
In addition to knocking off the defending champs already, the Lions have won 12 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. Dan Campbell has this team biting off kneecaps left and right. That won't end on Sunday, as Detroit improves to 5-1.
