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The Detroit Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL in 2024. This is the first time in the Super Bowl era where this is a reasonable statement to make. The Lions are truly having a season for the ages, putting up back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in franchise history. And it isn't even Thanksgiving yet.
Speaking of Thanksgiving, next up for Detroit is a Thanksgiving matchup against their division rival in Chicago.
The Lions have a history of losing on Thanksgiving. In fact, they are 37-45-2 all-time on Thanksgiving and have not won a game since 2016. That means that the Lions have yet to win on Thanksgiving during the Dan Campbell/Jared Goff era.
Will the Lions take care of business against the Bears on Turkey Day? Or will Detroit fall victim to a “trap game” like they have historically done on America's favorite holiday?
Below we will explore three Lions bold predictions ahead of their important Week 13 game against the Bears on Thanksgiving.
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Lions QB Jared Goff has his worst completion percentage of the season on Thanksgiving
Jared Goff has been playing like one of the best QBs in the NFL this season. However, when he has a bad game it is really bad. Look no further than Goff's Week 10 performance against the Texans where he threw five interceptions.
Goff has not played well against the Bears recently. The Lions barely came back to win 31-26 against the Bears in Ford Field in 2023. They also dropped a game to Chicago that season.
When you combine Detroit's inept history on Thanksgiving with their recent performances against the Bears, it is easy to draw a few conclusions. One of those is that Lions fans are probably nervous heading into this game, whether they'll admit it or not.
I believe the Bears will make life very difficult for Jared Goff on Thursday. It may not be enough to win the game, but I don't see the Lions putting up a ton of points in this game.
My prediction: Jared Goff has his lowest completion percentage of the season against the Bears on Thanksgiving. For context, Goff's worst completion percentage of the season was his five-interception performance against the Houston Texans. He had a 50% completion percentage in that game. I believe he has the potential to throw a lower completion percentage on Thanksgiving, but with many fewer turnover-worthy plays. This could happen if the passing game fails to work early in the game and Detroit is forced to lean on its running game.
Lions RB Craig Reynolds scores a touchdown with David Montgomery banged up
David Montgomery suffered a shoulder injury in Week 12 against the Colts. He was one of many Lions who did not practice on Monday.
It is too early to be certain if Montgomery will miss this game or not. However, even if he's active, it's easy to imagine he will be on a limited pitch count.
I believe that backup RB Craig Reynolds will play an important role for the Lions on Thanksgiving.
My prediction: Reynolds gets at least eight touches on Thanksgiving against the Bears. At least one of those will be a run on the goal line where he scores a touchdown.
Bears QB Caleb Williams throws three TDs, two INTs vs depleted Lions D
Caleb Williams has had an up-and-down rookie season. However, recently he has been playing much better under new OC Thomas Brown.
Over the past two games, Williams has thrown for 571 yards with two passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. In those two games, the Bears played their opponents (the Packers and Vikings) down to the very end and barely lost both contests.
This does not mean that Williams and the Bears are guaranteed to beat the Lions. However, it does mean that Detroit would be foolish to overlook Chicago despite their recent struggles.
One other complicating factor is the health of Detroit's secondary heading into this game. The Lions are already without second-round rookie Ennis Rakestraw, who is on IR with a hamstring injury. Starting cornerback Carlton Davis III suffered hand and knee injuries during Week 12 and missed practice on Monday per Pride of Detroit.
First-round rookie Terrion Arnold missed Week 12, but was able to practice on Monday.
All of this could lead to a more advantageous situation for Caleb Williams. He may be able to pick on backup cornerback Kindle Vildor and get some big gains off a potential mismatch there.
My prediction: Caleb Williams throws for over 300 passing yards with three touchdowns on Thanksgiving. However, I believe he will also commit a few ugly turnovers that could become the difference in the game. If Williams is able to limit turnovers, the Bears have a legitimate shot at beating the Lions. But if he struggles, the Lions will find a way to win.
