The San Diego Padres have the best record in baseball since returning from the All-Star break. The Padres even set a franchise record with their hot streak.
Jackson Merrill has been a major contributor to the team’s success this season. The first-year player has been red-hot at the plate and his performance is starting to draw attention. Merrill is now +125 to take home Rookie of the Year honors, per Clutchpoints Senior Editor Chris Spiering on X.
Incredibly, Merrill is making it a close race with Pittsburgh Pirates' pitching phenom Paul Skenes who is now -165. Just last week Skenes was -6000 and Merrill was +1500, per Spiering.
Heading into the All-Star break, it seemed impossible that anyone other than Skenes could win the award. At that time the Pirates’ 22-year-old rookie was 6-1 with a minuscule 1.90 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, 0.89 HR/9 and 103 strikeouts in 80.2 innings. Batters were hitting just .197 against him. Skenes was even named the All-Star game starter for the National League, becoming the first rookie to start the Midsummer Classic since Hideo Nomo in 1995.
In two starts after the All-Star game Skenes hasn’t been as dominant. He’s gone 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 12 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. Despite the recent dip, Skenes is having a remarkable season. He’s 6-2 overall with a 2.25 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and an ERA+ of 183. He’s up to 3.7 WAR in 15 starts for the Pirates in 2024.
It would take an unbelievable season to even approach Skenes in the Rookie of the Year conversation. But as impossible as it once appeared, Jackson Merrill is closing the gap with an epic first year.
The Padres’ Jackson Merrill has closed the gap in the NL Rookie of the Year race
Merrill was the Padres’ 27th overall pick in the 2021 draft. He made the 2024 opening day roster for San Diego and, so far, he’s been everything the team hoped he would be. Merrill has 19 doubles, 17 home runs, 64 RBI and 59 runs scored with an .800 OPS and an OPS+ of 123. The 21-year-old center fielder has produced 3.0 WAR in 116 games for the Padres. He also made the All-Star game as a reserve.
As the Padres have heated up, so has Merrill. And the rookie has been clutch this season. He’s already up to five game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the eighth inning or later. Merrill is tied with Mel Ott for the second most by a player 21 or younger since 1900, according to Sarah Langs on X. He trails Frank Robinson who had six such homers in 1956.
Merrill’s ability to take over a game has helped him gain traction in the Rookie of the Year race but more importantly it’s helped the Padres in their postseason push. San Diego is an MLB-best 17-4 since the All-Star game. The team has two seven-game winning streaks in that span. Unfortunately for the Padres, two teams in their division have also been hot since the All-Star game. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 18-5 and the Los Angeles Dodgers are 14-8.
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